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Leonard A McDonald and Chi Fai Wan

A risk assessment has been undertaken as part of a comprehensive review of the safety of Hume Dam. Use of risk assessment techniques, to assist in evaluating the safety of existing dams, is a relatively recent trend. Hume Dam was a particularly challenging subject for the application of risk assessment techniques at their present stage of development. The challenge lay in the number and diversity of dam elements to be analysed, in the number and complexity of the potential failure modes and in the fact that there were significant safety issues under normal operating conditions.

This paper outlines some of the key lessons learned from that phase of the risk assessment that was concerned with estimating the chance of dam failure. Some of the issues discussed have not previously been addressed in the literature and some demonstrate a clear need for improved analysis procedures.

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1998 Papers

1998 – Risk Assessment for Hume Dam – Lessons from Estimating the Chance of Failure
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Leonard A McDonald and Chi Fai Wan

A risk assessment has been undertaken as part of a comprehensive review of the safety of Hume Dam. Use of risk assessment techniques, to assist in evaluating the safety of existing dams, is a relatively recent trend. Hume Dam was a particularly challenging subject for the application of risk assessment techniques at their present stage of development. The challenge lay in the number and diversity of dam elements to be analysed, in the number and complexity of the potential failure modes and in the fact that there were significant safety issues under normal operating conditions.

This paper outlines some of the key lessons learned from that phase of the risk assessment that was concerned with estimating the chance of dam failure. Some of the issues discussed have not previously been addressed in the literature and some demonstrate a clear need for improved analysis procedures.
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1998 Papers

1998 – Risk Assessment of Dams – Future Directions for Victoria
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David Watson and John Adem

For several years risk management has been promoted by the Victorian Department of Natural Resources and Environment – Water Agencies as the key mechanism for the effective and efficient business management of dams. As part of an extensive water reform program, the Victorian Government announced in October 1997, a financial assistance package for the water industry which included funding for dam improvements covering a majority of large dam owners in the State. One of the conditions for receipt of these improvement funds was the need for each water authority to undertake a Business Risk Assessment of all significant and high hazard dams under its responsibility.

This paper discusses the Business Risk Assessment document based on a framework developed by Water Agencies after consultation with the industry and expands on the following reasons why the document was produced:
- To stress the importance and value of risk assessment in managing dams and the major role it plays in business planning and understanding dam performance. Risk assessment is not an alternative to the traditional engineering or deterministic approach but an enhancement,
- To identify the minimum assessment required and examples of different approaches such as portfolio risk assessments,
- To provide preliminary reference risk criteria to assist water authorities to determine appropriate business performance requirements. This preliminary criteria was developed from considering likely (although subject to change) outcomes of the current revision of Australian National Committee on Large Dams (ANCOLD) 1994 Risk Assessment Guidelines and other guidelines involving risk aspects recently or being prepared,
- To indicate future reporting and actions expected over the five year duration of the package including project evaluations and further risk assessments,
- To assist with inputs into ANCOLD’s continuing development and revision of guidelines, and
- To provide a platform for development over the next 18 months of an appropriate regulatory framework for covering all referable dams in the State. Key considerations will included performance based requirements encompassing risk management concepts, appropriate drivers which promote duty of care and associated legal issues and liabilities.
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1999 Papers

1999 – Alamo Dam Demonstration Risk Assessment
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David S. Bowles, Loren R. Anderson, Joseph B. Evelyn, Terry F. Glover and David M. Van Dorpe

A demonstration risk assessment was conducted on the 283-foot high rolled-earthfill Alamo Dam as part of a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Research and Development program. The existing dam and 19 structural risk reduction alternatives were evaluated for flood, earthquake and normal operating conditions. The paper summarizes the risk assessment process, results, findings and recommendations. It also provides an evaluation of the risk assessment process and recommendations for better positioning the USACE to use risk assessment for dam safety evaluation and decision support.
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2000 Papers

2000 – Risk Assessment and Dams – Is it Safe?
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S.G. McGrath

The use of risk analysis for dam safety is becoming more widespread. Dam owners are increasingly aware of the need for information on current and emerging practices from the world scene to determine how to proceed with the use of risk assessment. The paper summarises the findings of a Churchill Fellowship study into risk assessment for dam safety management. Dam owners, regulators and consultants from the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the United States and Canada were consulted for the study. Conclusions are drawn from the findings and recommendations made for future development.
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2000 Papers

2000 – Risk Assessment: A Complex Exercise But A Worthwhile Tool
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A. Ash, D. S. Bowles, S. Abbey and R. Herweynen

A preliminary risk assessment was undertaken of its three dams by the South East Queensland Water Board (SEQWB) in 1999. The risk assessment process used included a series of workshops that proved to be an important part of ensuring a worthwhile result. The combined expertise of the consultants together with that of staff from the Board and the Queensland’s Department of Natural Resources were used to improve the outcome. The results of the assessment showed that the process had both advantages as well as difficulties in comparison to a standards based approach for making dam safety decisions. Risk Assessment was seen to be a useful management tool for managing dam safety. It gave the owner the ability to quickly rank upgrade requirements or maintenance options on the basis of probability of failure, life safety risks and financial risks to the owner or economic risks to all stakeholders.
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2000 Papers

2000 – Ross River Dam Risk Assessment – A Summary
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R. E. Saunders, J. Roberts, B. W. Omundson

Ross River Dam is located immediately upstream of the twin cities of Townsville and Thuringowa. The population at risk from failure of the dam is approximately 110,000. A recently completed risk assessment has confirmed earlier studies that the dam does not satisfy current safety criteria and presents high risk levels in a number of areas. Importantly, the risk assessment has enabled the extent of these risks to be clearly identified. This paper summarises the risk assessment highlighting notable methodologies employed and the key findings of the study.
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2002 Papers

2002 – Experimental Investigation of the Rate of Piping Erosion of Soils in Embankment Dams
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C.F. Wan, R. Fell, M.A. Foster

This paper presents the findings of experimental investigation of the rate of piping erosion of soils conducted at the University of New South Wales.

Two tests, namely the Slot Erosion Test and the Hole Erosion Test, have been developed to study the erosion characteristics of a soil. The erosion characteristics are described by the Erosion Rate Index, which indicates the rate of erosion due to fluid traction, and the Critical Shear Stress, which represents the minimum shear stress when erosion starts. Results of the two laboratory erosion tests are strongly correlated. Values of the Erosion Rate Index span from 0 to 6, indicating that two soils can differ in their rates of erosion by up to 106 times. Coarse-grained soils, in general, are less erosion-resistant than fine-grained soils. The Erosion Rate Indices of coarse-grained cohesionless soils show good correlation with the fines and clay contents, and the degree of saturation of the soils, whereas the Erosion Rate Indices of fine-grained cohesive soils show moderately good correlation with the degree of saturation. The absence of smectites and vermiculites, and apparently the presence of cementing materials, such as iron oxides, improves the erosion resistance of a fine-grained soil.

The Hole Erosion Test is proposed as a simple index test for quantifying the rate of piping erosion in a soil, and for finding the approximate Critical Shear Stress corresponding to initiation of piping erosion. Knowledge of these erosion characteristics of the core soil of an embankment dam aids assessment of the likelihood of dam failure due to piping erosion in a risk assessment process.
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2002 Papers

2002 – Probabilities of Extreme Rainfall – Past, Present, and Future
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J.H. Green, P.E. Weinmann, G.A. Kuczera, R. J. Nathan and E.M. Laurenson

Assigning an Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) to the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), and subsequently to the PMP Design Flood, is an integral part of the risk assessment process for large dams. Laurenson and Kuczera (1998) conducted a review of existing PMP risk estimation practices in Australia and concluded that, in the absence of any better information, the work by Kennedy and Hart (1984) provided the most appropriate estimates to adopt but with the proviso that the method should be viewed as interim pending the outcomes of ongoing research.

This paper gives an overview of a joint research project that is working towards obtaining credible estimates of exceedance probabilities of extreme rainfalls using the concept of storm arrival probability and storm transposition probability. It also outlines the work to be carried out over the next 12 months that will culminate in the combining of the outcomes of the two components and the application to test catchments. Finally, the paper discusses desirable follow-up action to promote the adoption of the research results by practitioners.
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2002 Papers

2002 – Strategic Risk Assessment for Thirteen Victorian Dams
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Richard R. Davidson, Shane McGrath, Adrian Bowden, Andrew Reynolds

Goulburn-Murray Water (G-MW) manages thirteen major dams for the State of Victoria. As part of its Dam Improvement Program (DIP), five priority dams were identified for detailed safety and performance evaluation. Over the last three years, the design reviews have been completed and a series of dam safety issues have been identified which pose societal and financial risk. Substantial financial resources will be required to be applied over a considerable period to bring these dams into compliance with established international and Australian standards. Which of these dam safety issues should be addressed first? In what sequence and with what urgency should the actions be implemented? Can cost-effective interim targets be set? How can the remaining eight
dams, which could also pose societal and financial risk, be prioritised for future detailed investigation? To answer these questions a quantitative risk assessment approach was used. The approach utilised expert engineering and consequence panels and included input to and review of the process and outcomes by a stakeholder reference panel reporting directly to the Board of G-MW. The implementation of a strategic risk management process has now begun to progressively and systematically reduce the dam safety risk across the entire dams portfolio. This process recognises that available funding for risk reduction measures is very limited, so the highest risks are reduced in an incremental fashion to achieve interim risk targets and eventually meet contemporary dam safety standards.
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2006 Papers

2006 – A Summary Of Major Dam Safety Deficiencies Identified By The Initial U.S. Army Corps Of Engineers’ Screening Portfolio Risk Assessment Program
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Jeffrey A. Schaefer, Ph.D., P.E., P.G. and David M. Schaaf, P.E.

In 2005 the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) developed and implemented a Screening Portfolio Risk Assessment (SPRA) process for Dam Safety. The screening process considered loading frequency, an engineering rating to estimate a relative probability of failure, and both human life and economic consequences of failure. The results were utilized as a tool to help prioritize funding for dam safety modification projects and required studies. Three multidisciplinary cadres evaluated what was considered the worst 10% of the USACE’s dam projects in 2005 and the next worst 10% in 2006. The dams evaluated included flood control, navigation, and multi-purpose dams. Approximately seventy facilities were evaluated each year.

As a result of the aging of the USACE’s dam portfolio and the state of the art at the time of design and construction (mostly 1940’s-50’s), significant dam safety deficiencies exist at many USACE dams. This paper summarizes the major deficiencies identified from the SPRA process. Examples, including foundation seepage, karst development, embankment stability, gate deterioration, liquefiable foundations, and inadequate spillway capacity are provided along with discussion on which deficiencies contribute the greatest risk.
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2006 Papers

2006 – An Overview of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Screening for Portfolio Risk Assessment for Dam Safety Program
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David M. Schaaf, P.E., Jeff Schaefer, Ph.D., P.E., P.G

The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has an inventory of over 600 dams. The main purpose of many of these dams is for flood control, but there are a significant number of dams primarily used for navigation. Additional benefits at many of these projects are provided through hydropower generation, recreation, and irrigation for farmers. Many of the dams are quite old and represent an aging infrastructure across the inventory. In addition, leaner budgets relative to the need for repairs across the aging system require that USACE invest wisely in order to efficiently use available funds to reduce the greatest risks across the inventory. Previously, individual projects with perceived deficiencies were evaluated separately by the responsible district. This evaluation was not compared in any programmatic way to other USACE dams being evaluated for deficiencies.

In order to improve the process of making risk-based decisions across the entire spectrum of USACE dams, the Screening for Portfolio Risk Assessment (SPRA) for the USACE Dam Safety Program was initiated during the summer of 2005. This effort represents the first level of a multiple phased effort to bring full scale risk assessment to the decision-making regarding making investment decisions associated with dam safety by linking engineering reliability with economic and life loss impacts on a relative scale. The SPRA effort involved the development of a tool for evaluating the relative life and economic risk of dam failures for a variety of deficiencies across the inventory of USACE dams. This paper will focus on the basic aspects of the evaluation tool as well as the process by which the screening was completed.
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2006 Papers

2006 – Justification for an Operating Restriction in Spain Incorporating ANCOLD Guidelines on Risk Assessment
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Manuel G. de Membrillera, Ignacio Escuder, David Bowles, Eduardo Triana, Luis Altarejos

The work herein presented is an application of the risk assessment process to retroactively estimate the justification of an operating restriction implemented on a Spanish Dam. Since the risk approach is not yet an established practice in Spain, the main objective of this case study is to show, the utility that risk assessment can have as a decision support tool for decisions on dam safety risk reduction investments.

An operating restriction has been imposed at this dam since its first impoundment. All studies, analysis and documents related to the safety of the dam and reservoir have been completed, as required by the Technical Regulation on Dam and Reservoir Safety (Spanish legislation, 1996). In addition, the structural corrective actions recommended in these evaluations are being implemented, so it is expected that the operating restriction can be removed in the near future.

In this context, the problem that has been formulated and solved comprises an evaluation, after more than 30 years since construction, of the operating restriction justification in terms of risk mitigation. In order to achieve the objective of the work, ANCOLD guidelines on Risk Assessment (2003) have been followed in addition to tolerable risk guidelines from several other countries and organizations.
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2014 Papers

2014 – Beyond Quantitative ALARP – Re-Focussing Paradigms for Dam Safety Risk Management in a Changed Legal Environment
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Dennis C. Green

Current good practice for risk management as represented in ANCOLD guidelines emphasises risk reduction beyond tolerable risk levels to As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). Risk reduction reflected in key design parameters such as the spillway design flood is monitored on a quantitative basis, while the guidelines also draw attention to a number of non-quantifiable measures.

Recent work health and safety legislation in Australia does not at first appear to relate to dam safety, but it mandates elimination of risk, and, if that is not possible, then it mandates reduction of risk So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable (SFAIRP). It is tempting to believe that this is equivalent to ANCOLD’s approach to ALARP, but the devil is in the detail of the legislation. This paper argues for a change to a more systematic presentation of recording of decisions on dam safety risk management, lest the legislation expose dam owners unwittingly to liability when they thought they were following good practice. In particular, the re-focussing of ANCOLD Guidelines to align more recognisably with the new legal paradigm, including preparation and adoption of a Safety Case, is recommended.

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2014 Papers

2014 – Weirs – What Risk Do They Really Pose to Your Business?
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Kathryn Whalley and Bob Clark

When Seqwater was established in 2008 it inherited from local governments 51 weirs of varying ages, sizes, design standards and condition. In order to better understand these structures, in 2012 Seqwater engaged NSW Public Works to undertake a condition and risk assessment of its weir portfolio. The assessment, consisting of a background review, site inspections, stability assessment and a collaborative risk workshop, examined risks to the structures, to Seqwater personnel and the public. Assessment of the risk consequences used Seqwater’s recent experience with repairs to weirs damaged in the 2011 and 2013 Queensland floods. The assessment was completed in 2013 and identified more than 1000 risks. It was recommended that more than 600 moderate to high risks be reduced through a prioritised program over the next 10 years. Weir performance following the 2011 and 2013 floods is also discussed.
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2016 Papers

2016 – Dam Safety Management for Upgrade of an Extreme Consequence Storage
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Mark Arnold, Gavan Hunter and Mark Foster

Following the dam safety risk assessment for Greenvale Dam in 2008, Melbourne Water implemented a 3.0 m reservoir level restriction on the operation of the storage as an interim risk reduction measure. The 3.0 m restriction coincided with the ‘as constructed’ top of the chimney filter in the main embankment. This interim action reduced the dam safety risk to below the ANCOLD limit of tolerability.

Dam safety upgrade works were undertaken in 2014/15 to bring the dam in-line with current risk based guidelines and to enable the removal of the interim reservoir restriction, bringing the storage back to full operating capacity. Greenvale Dam was required to remain operational throughout the works and this required careful consideration of the dam safety risk during construction.

Deep excavations were required within the crest and downstream shoulder of the embankments, that,, without adequate management, had the potential to increase risk to the downstream population. Excavations up to 18 m depth were required into the wing embankments for construction of full height filters from foundation to crest, excavations up to 7 m deep were required in the main embankment to expose and connect into the existing filters and secant filter piles up to 13 m deep were used to connect the new chimney filter of the wing embankments with the original chimney filter of the main embankment.

A key element of the design and construction of the upgrade works was managing dam safety during construction. Dam safety considerations included (i) design based decisions to manage the level of exposure; (ii) implementation of further restrictions on reservoir level by the owner Melbourne Water; (iii) construction methods to manage exposure; (iv) an elevated surveillance regime during the works and (v) emergency preparation measures including emergency stockpiles and 24 hour emergency standby crew. The construction based dam safety requirements were focused on early detection and early intervention, and were managed via the project specific Dam Safety Management Plan.

This paper focuses on dam safety management including the decisions made, actions taken and construction requirements and touches on how these relate to the key project features.
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2016 Papers

2016 – Estimating the Probability of Breach for Overtopping of Low to Medium Height Homogenous Earthfill Embankments
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Kelly Maslin, Richard Rodd

As an industry there have been many advances in the assessment of the probability of failure associated with a range of failure modes including embankment piping and stability. However, little work has been done on the development of a meaningful tool to assist in the assessment of probabilities of failure for embankment breach due to overtopping.

In the development of this paper a number of embankment overtopping case studies were reviewed and these were used to anchor the suggested probabilities of failure. The case studies assessed were all low to medium height, homogeneous earthfill embankment dams. Consideration has been given to a range of factors including embankment material and construction, embankment geometry, duration of overtopping and the presence and condition of vegetation on the embankment face.

The results of the analysis of the case studies indicate that the probability of breach due to overtopping, particularly for short duration events, is actually relatively low compared to the typical values being adopted within the industry.

It is the intended purpose of this paper that it provides guidance to the industry on the assignment of the probability of embankment breach due to overtopping to allow more consistent, robust and defensible estimates for dam safety risk assessments.
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