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J. H. Green and P. I. Hill

Early Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) studies and spillway adequacy assessments for Hume Dam adopted the standards based approach of the time. Since then considerable work and thought has gone into the estimation of extreme floods – both the philosophy and the practice. These changes include the general change in emphasis away from a standards based approach and towards risk assessment; the move towards an AEP-neutral approach for the transformation of extreme rainfalls to extreme floods; and the redefinition of both the PMP and the PMF.

This paper details the effect these and other changes to extreme flood estimation techniques have had on the perceived adequacy of the Hume Dam spillway to pass extreme floods.

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1998 Papers

1998 – Developments in Extreme Flood Estimation Techniques – Hume Dam: A Case Study
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J. H. Green and P. I. Hill

Early Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) studies and spillway adequacy assessments for Hume Dam adopted the standards based approach of the time. Since then considerable work and thought has gone into the estimation of extreme floods – both the philosophy and the practice. These changes include the general change in emphasis away from a standards based approach and towards risk assessment; the move towards an AEP-neutral approach for the transformation of extreme rainfalls to extreme floods; and the redefinition of both the PMP and the PMF.

This paper details the effect these and other changes to extreme flood estimation techniques have had on the perceived adequacy of the Hume Dam spillway to pass extreme floods.
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$15.00

1998 Papers

1998 – Improved Estimates of Hydrologic Risks for Dam – Impacts of the New Flood Guidelines
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P.I. HILL, R.J. NATHAN, P.E. WEINMANN, J.H. GREEN

The assessment of flood risk is important to the safe design, maintenance and operation of dams. Traditionally, a standards-based approach has been adopted, in which the adequacy of a spillway was assessed by its ability to pass the whole, or a specified fraction, of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). More recently, however, the ANCOLD Position Paper on Guidelines for Selection of Acceptable Flood Capacity for Dams has moved towards a risk-based approach, in which attention is focused on establishing the exceedance probability of the maximum flood that can be safely passed by the spillway.

The move to a risk-based approach has led to an increasing focus on the derivation of floods with very low probabilities of exceedance. The chapter in Australian Rainfall and Runoff that gives guidance on the estimation of extreme floods has recently been revised and issued as Book VI. The new guidelines reflect the move from a standards, to a risk based approach and also include recent developments in extreme flood estimation. These recent developments result in an improved estimate of floods in the large to extreme range and hence a more reliable estimate of hydrologic risk.

This paper illustrates the impacts of the new flood guidelines by summarising the results for 7 dams in Southeastern Australia. For the examples presented in this paper the impact of the new guidelines is to reduce the estimated hydrologic risk. The new guidelines have an important effect on the estimation of hydrologic risk and therefore the assessment and management of dams in Australia.
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2000 Papers

2000 – Development of a Comprehensive Approach to Consequence Assessment
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P.I. Hill, D. Cook, R.J. Nathan, P.A. Crowe, J.H. Green, N. Mayo

This paper describes the development of a comprehensive approach to estimating the consequences of failure of a dam. The approach considers separately the consequences in terms of potential loss of life, economic loss and damage to the environment and the development and application of the method involved professionals from a wide range of disciplines. The method has been applied to 28 dams in NSW.
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2001 Papers

2001 – On the Art of Event Tree Modelling for Portfolio Risk Analyses
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P.I. Hill, D.S. Bowles, R.J. Nathan, R. Herweynen

With the growing emphasis on a risk-based approach to dam safety management, event tree models are increasingly being used as an analysis tool. The simple structure of event trees belies some of the more complex issues associated with their application to dam safety risk analysis. This paper outlines some of the basic principles of event tree analysis and then demonstrates how inappropriate construction of event trees, and particularly oversimplification, can result in a bias in the estimated risk and produce misleading results when used to assess the dam against various risk criteria. Issues considered include the partitioning of the loading event and the impact of conservative assumptions such as assuming the reservoir is initially at full supply level.
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2001 Papers

2001 – Risk Implications of the PMF and PMP Design Flood
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R.J. Nathan, P.I. Hill, and H. Griffith

Recently released ANCOLD and IEAust flood guidelines include provision for the estimation of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) as well as the Probable Maximum Precipitation Design Flood (PMP DF). This paper examines the theoretical justification for derivation of these two different types of floods, and discusses how they may be used to characterise the hydrologic risk relevant to dam spillways. Recent experience has indicated that there is some confusion in the industry about the different uses of these estimates, and thus one objective of the paper is to clarify the different concepts involved and to provide an illustration of the differences between flood estimates for the two methods. Examples are provided to illustrate how the different estimates may be derived, and the practical implications for risk analysis are discussed.
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2002 Papers

2002 – Use of a Monte Carlo Framework to Characterise Hydrologic Risk
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R.J. Nathan, P.E. Weinmann and P.I. Hill

Current practice for estimation of design floods is typically based on the “design event” approach, in which all parameters other than rainfall are input as fixed, single values. Considerable effort is made to ensure that the single values of the adopted parameters are “AEP-neutral”, that is, they are selected with the objective of ensuring that the resulting flood has the same annual exceedance probability as its causative rainfall. While this approach represents current best practice in Australia (and overseas), it does suffer from a number of limitations.

This paper describes the development and application of a Monte Carlo (or joint probability) framework which offer an alternative to the design event method. This technique recognises that any design flood characteristics (e.g. peakflow) could result from a variety of combinations of flood producing factors, rather than from a single combination. The approach mimics “mother nature” in that the influence of all probability distributed inputs are explicitly considered, thereby providing a more realistic representation of the flood generation processes.

The advantages of the technique are illustrated by application to a hypothetical dam located on a real catchment. The manner in which standard design inputs are incorporated are discussed, as is the relationship of the approach to current guidelines.
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2012 Papers

2012 – Development Of A Comprehensive Approach To Portfolio Consequence Assessment Using Spatial Data
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A.E. Bentley, P.I. Hill, S.M. Lang, M. Freund, A. Richardson

This paper describes the development of a detailed assessment approach using spatial data to estimate the consequences of dam failure across a portfolio of 18 dams in NSW. The assessment is made for potential loss of life; economic and financial losses and a qualitative assessment of environmental and social impacts. The approach is designed around the use and interrogation of spatial databases combined with outputs from hydraulic models. The assessment method is applicable to a wide range of dams in different valleys, each with different downstream characteristics. The paper provides discussion on the advantages of the approach and presents some insights into the effective application to a dam portfolio of significant size and scale.
Keywords: consequence assessment, spatial databases
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2011 Papers

2011 – ACHIEVING CONSISTENCY IN DERIVATION OF THE PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD
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R.J. Nathan, P.I. Hill, and P.E. Weinmann

The current definition of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is open to subjective interpretation, and this lack of objectivity can lead to inconsistencies in the application of risk-based and standards-based criteria. This paper summarises the different approaches used to estimate the PMF, and highlights how these reflect differences in the availability of design information and local tradition and experience. A number of approaches are available that can aid the objective definition of the PMF. These approaches attempt to define the “reasonableness” of the manner in which the various flood producing factors are combined by reference to the relative shift in the annual exceedance probability of the event. The implications of the different approaches to deriving the PMF are summarised for a number of dams from across Australia. Guidance on deriving the PMF is provided in the paper with a view to seeking feedback from industry and consideration for inclusion in relevant guidelines.
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