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J. H. Green and P. I. Hill

Early Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) studies and spillway adequacy assessments for Hume Dam adopted the standards based approach of the time. Since then considerable work and thought has gone into the estimation of extreme floods – both the philosophy and the practice. These changes include the general change in emphasis away from a standards based approach and towards risk assessment; the move towards an AEP-neutral approach for the transformation of extreme rainfalls to extreme floods; and the redefinition of both the PMP and the PMF.

This paper details the effect these and other changes to extreme flood estimation techniques have had on the perceived adequacy of the Hume Dam spillway to pass extreme floods.

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1998 Papers

1998 – Developments in Extreme Flood Estimation Techniques – Hume Dam: A Case Study
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J. H. Green and P. I. Hill

Early Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) studies and spillway adequacy assessments for Hume Dam adopted the standards based approach of the time. Since then considerable work and thought has gone into the estimation of extreme floods – both the philosophy and the practice. These changes include the general change in emphasis away from a standards based approach and towards risk assessment; the move towards an AEP-neutral approach for the transformation of extreme rainfalls to extreme floods; and the redefinition of both the PMP and the PMF.

This paper details the effect these and other changes to extreme flood estimation techniques have had on the perceived adequacy of the Hume Dam spillway to pass extreme floods.
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1998 Papers

1998 – Improved Estimates of Hydrologic Risks for Dam – Impacts of the New Flood Guidelines
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P.I. HILL, R.J. NATHAN, P.E. WEINMANN, J.H. GREEN

The assessment of flood risk is important to the safe design, maintenance and operation of dams. Traditionally, a standards-based approach has been adopted, in which the adequacy of a spillway was assessed by its ability to pass the whole, or a specified fraction, of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). More recently, however, the ANCOLD Position Paper on Guidelines for Selection of Acceptable Flood Capacity for Dams has moved towards a risk-based approach, in which attention is focused on establishing the exceedance probability of the maximum flood that can be safely passed by the spillway.

The move to a risk-based approach has led to an increasing focus on the derivation of floods with very low probabilities of exceedance. The chapter in Australian Rainfall and Runoff that gives guidance on the estimation of extreme floods has recently been revised and issued as Book VI. The new guidelines reflect the move from a standards, to a risk based approach and also include recent developments in extreme flood estimation. These recent developments result in an improved estimate of floods in the large to extreme range and hence a more reliable estimate of hydrologic risk.

This paper illustrates the impacts of the new flood guidelines by summarising the results for 7 dams in Southeastern Australia. For the examples presented in this paper the impact of the new guidelines is to reduce the estimated hydrologic risk. The new guidelines have an important effect on the estimation of hydrologic risk and therefore the assessment and management of dams in Australia.
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2000 Papers

2000 – Development of a Comprehensive Approach to Consequence Assessment
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P.I. Hill, D. Cook, R.J. Nathan, P.A. Crowe, J.H. Green, N. Mayo

This paper describes the development of a comprehensive approach to estimating the consequences of failure of a dam. The approach considers separately the consequences in terms of potential loss of life, economic loss and damage to the environment and the development and application of the method involved professionals from a wide range of disciplines. The method has been applied to 28 dams in NSW.
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2002 Papers

2002 – Probabilities of Extreme Rainfall – Past, Present, and Future
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J.H. Green, P.E. Weinmann, G.A. Kuczera, R. J. Nathan and E.M. Laurenson

Assigning an Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) to the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), and subsequently to the PMP Design Flood, is an integral part of the risk assessment process for large dams. Laurenson and Kuczera (1998) conducted a review of existing PMP risk estimation practices in Australia and concluded that, in the absence of any better information, the work by Kennedy and Hart (1984) provided the most appropriate estimates to adopt but with the proviso that the method should be viewed as interim pending the outcomes of ongoing research.

This paper gives an overview of a joint research project that is working towards obtaining credible estimates of exceedance probabilities of extreme rainfalls using the concept of storm arrival probability and storm transposition probability. It also outlines the work to be carried out over the next 12 months that will culminate in the combining of the outcomes of the two components and the application to test catchments. Finally, the paper discusses desirable follow-up action to promote the adoption of the research results by practitioners.
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2003 Papers

2003 – THE IMPACT OF THE REVISION OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES IN THE GTSM REGION OF AUSTRALIA
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The Bureau of Meteorology has recently revised the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates for the Generalised Tropical Storm Method (GTSM) region of Australia. The revision process has involved the application of the more technically rigorous Generalised Southeast Australia Method (GSAM) that was previously developed for the southern part of Australia to a much larger data set of severe tropical storms. This has generally lead to an increase in the total GTSM PMP depths with a resultant increase in the Probable Maximum Precipitation Design Flood (PMPDF) and the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF).

In addition, the revision process has produced significant modifications to the temporal and spatial patterns adopted when applying the PMP depths to a dam’s catchment and these changes have also generally lead to increases in the resultant floods.

This paper discusses the rationale behind the increases in PMP depths and changes in the associated temporal and spatial patterns and presents the justification for the adoption of these more scientifically defensible estimates.

The application of the revised PMP estimates to the Keepit Dam catchment in northern NSW is presented and a comparison between the PMPDF and PMF estimates based on the original GTSM and the revised GTSM (GTSMR) made for this specific case study.
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2003 Papers

2003 – The Impact of the Revision of Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates in the GTSM Region of Australia
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J.H. Green, D.J. Walland, N. Nandakumar

The Bureau of Meteorology has recently revised the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates for the Generalised Tropical Storm Method (GTSM) region of Australia. The revision process has involved the application of the more technically rigorous Generalised Southeast Australia Method (GSAM) that was previously developed for the southern part of Australia to a much larger data set of severe tropical storms. This has generally lead to an increase in the total GTSM PMP depths with a resultant increase in the Probable Maximum Precipitation Design Flood (PMPDF) and the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF).

In addition, the revision process has produced significant modifications to the temporal and spatial patterns adopted when applying the PMP depths to a dam’s catchment and these changes have also generally lead to increases in the resultant floods.

This paper discusses the rationale behind the increases in PMP depths and changes in the associated temporal and spatial patterns and presents the justification for the adoption of these more scientifically defensible estimates.

The application of the revised PMP estimates to the Keepit Dam catchment in northern NSW is presented and a comparison between the PMPDF and PMF estimates based on the original GTSM and the revised GTSM (GTSMR) made for this specific case study.
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2015 Papers

2015 – Improved Rare Design Rainfalls for Australia
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J.H. Green; C. Beesley; C. The and S. Podger

Rare design rainfalls for probabilities less frequent than 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) are an essential part of spillway adequacy assessment as they enable more accurate definition of the design rainfall and flood frequency curves between the 1% AEP and Probable Maximum events.

Estimates for rare design rainfalls were previously derived using the CRC-FORGE method which was developed in the 1990s. However, as the method was applied on a state-by-state basis, there are variations in the approach adopted for each region. Differences in the cut-off period for data, the amount of quality controlling of the data undertaken, the base used for the 2% AEP estimates, gridding settings and smoothing processes have created inconsistencies which are particularly apparent in overlapping state border areas.

The Bureau of Meteorology has derived new rare design rainfalls for the whole of Australia using the extensive, quality-controlled rainfall database established for the new Intensity-Frequency-Duration (IFD) design rainfalls. These data have been analysed using a regional LH-moments approach which is more consistent with the method used to derive the new IFDs and which overcomes the limitations of the spatial dependence model in the CRC-FORGE method. In particular, the selection and verification of homogenous regions and the identification of the most appropriate regional probability distribution to adopt relied heavily on the outcomes of the testing of methods undertaken for the new IFDs. However, to focus the analysis on the rarer rainfall events, only the largest events have been used to define the LH-moments.

Keywords: Rare design rainfalls; Intensity-Frequency-Duration (IFD); Annual Exceedance Probability
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2016 Papers

2016 – Comparing CRCFORGE Estimates and the New Rare Design Rainfalls
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J.H.Green, C.Beesley, C.The, S.Podgerand, A.Frost

The ability to estimate design rainfalls for probabilities rarer than 100 years or 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) is an essential part of dam hydrology. The earliest means of estimating rare events consisted of a pragmatic curve fitting procedure between the 50 and 100 year design rainfalls and the Probable Maximum Precipitation. In the 1990s a more rigorous method of estimating design rainfalls as rare as 2000 years was developed – the Cooperative Research Centre – FOcussed Rainfall Growth Estimation (CRC-FORGE) method. CRC-FORGE estimates were derived for Victoria in 1997 followed progressively by each of the other states. Over the subsequent two decades CRC-FORGE estimates were an integral part of the risk assessment of large dams – being used to determine the AEP of the Dam Crest Flood.

The Bureau of Meteorology will soon release new rare design rainfall estimates for probabilities to 2000 years. The new rare design rainfalls are a significant improvement on the CRC-FORGE estimates as they have been derived using up to date data; contemporary analytical techniques and a method that is consistent across Australia.

However, there are differences between the CRC-FORGE estimates and the new rare design rainfalls. These differences do not constitute a systematic change to the CRC-FORGE estimates but rather vary with location; duration and probability. The results of a detailed comparison between the CRC-FORGE estimates and the new rare design rainfalls are presented together will an assessment of the possible impacts on previous estimates of the AEP of the Dam Crest Flood.
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