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D. S. Bowles

Portfolio risk assessment (PRA) can now be considered to be a standard of practice in Australia. In this paper various advances in the state-of-the-practice for performing PRA’s are reviewed, including some pitfalls and limitations. The uses of PRA outcomes by owners are discussed, along with some ways to improve the value derived from PRAs. The challenges that are common in seeking to achieve an integration of the PRA process into the owner’s dam safety management program and with broader business processes, and the importance of targeting PRA outcomes to an owner’s specific business needs, are emphasised.

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2000 Papers

2000 – Advances in the Practice and Use of Portfolio Risk Assessment
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D. S. Bowles

Portfolio risk assessment (PRA) can now be considered to be a standard of practice in Australia. In this paper various advances in the state-of-the-practice for performing PRA’s are reviewed, including some pitfalls and limitations. The uses of PRA outcomes by owners are discussed, along with some ways to improve the value derived from PRAs. The challenges that are common in seeking to achieve an integration of the PRA process into the owner’s dam safety management program and with broader business processes, and the importance of targeting PRA outcomes to an owner’s specific business needs, are emphasised.

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2000 Papers

2000 – Risk Assessment: A Complex Exercise But A Worthwhile Tool
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A. Ash, D. S. Bowles, S. Abbey and R. Herweynen

A preliminary risk assessment was undertaken of its three dams by the South East Queensland Water Board (SEQWB) in 1999. The risk assessment process used included a series of workshops that proved to be an important part of ensuring a worthwhile result. The combined expertise of the consultants together with that of staff from the Board and the Queensland’s Department of Natural Resources were used to improve the outcome. The results of the assessment showed that the process had both advantages as well as difficulties in comparison to a standards based approach for making dam safety decisions. Risk Assessment was seen to be a useful management tool for managing dam safety. It gave the owner the ability to quickly rank upgrade requirements or maintenance options on the basis of probability of failure, life safety risks and financial risks to the owner or economic risks to all stakeholders.
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2001 Papers

2001 – On the Art of Event Tree Modelling for Portfolio Risk Analyses
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P.I. Hill, D.S. Bowles, R.J. Nathan, R. Herweynen

With the growing emphasis on a risk-based approach to dam safety management, event tree models are increasingly being used as an analysis tool. The simple structure of event trees belies some of the more complex issues associated with their application to dam safety risk analysis. This paper outlines some of the basic principles of event tree analysis and then demonstrates how inappropriate construction of event trees, and particularly oversimplification, can result in a bias in the estimated risk and produce misleading results when used to assess the dam against various risk criteria. Issues considered include the partitioning of the loading event and the impact of conservative assumptions such as assuming the reservoir is initially at full supply level.
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2002 Papers

2002 – Risk-informed Dam Safety Decision-making
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D.S. Bowles and Loren R Anderson

Starting a quarrel is like breaching a dam; so drop the matter before a dispute breaks out. Proverbs 17:14 (NIV)

An approach is summarised for presenting the outcomes of traditional engineering assessments and risk assessments to inform non-technical decision makers. The decision justification approach can be adapted to any dam owner’s unique decision context. It includes rating systems for presenting the outcomes from engineering assessments and from applying tolerable risk criteria, including ALARP. Three decision types are addressed: setting tolerable risk goals for individual dams, identifying a risk reduction pathway for a portfolio of dams, and managing residual risk on an on-going basis
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