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Anna Hams, Lindsay Millard, Elizabeth Jackson, Zara Bostock, Helena Sutherland

The Queensland dam regulator requires that dam safety risk during construction must not increase from its existing profile. The Stage 2A upgrade of Ewen Maddock Dam required excavation of its homogeneous embankment to retrofit chimney and filter blankets, and also the construction of a concrete parapet wall. Due to the constraints of the embankment profile and a constricted site, it was necessary to excavate the downstream face of the embankment. This excavation increased the risk of embankment failure due to overtopping, piping and instability. This paper discusses the measures taken to manage those dam safety risks, and includes:

● use of a temporary system consisting of six large siphons to regulate the lake level to a Restricted Full Supply Level (Restricted FSL). This encompassed the optimisation of lake level and capacity of siphons required to balance competing risks; dam safety, environmental, community and water security. This optimisation was based on a probabilistic assessment of hydrological inflows and lake levels, the development of a flow management plan;

● implementation of a Dam Safety Management Plan which outlined the roles and responsibilities for
managing dam safety during construction at each pre-determined lake level trigger levels. This includes how the contractor was involved to ensure quick response from the “eyes and ears on the ground”; and,

● development of recommended construction methodologies including a “rolling front” and placing
filters vertically to increase production, maintain quality and limit the extent of embankment excavation underway.

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2021 Papers

2021 – Ewen Maddock Dam Upgrade – Draining down the risk (with siphons)
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Anna Hams, Lindsay Millard, Elizabeth Jackson, Zara Bostock, Helena Sutherland

The Queensland dam regulator requires that dam safety risk during construction must not increase from its existing profile. The Stage 2A upgrade of Ewen Maddock Dam required excavation of its homogeneous embankment to retrofit chimney and filter blankets, and also the construction of a concrete parapet wall. Due to the constraints of the embankment profile and a constricted site, it was necessary to excavate the downstream face of the embankment. This excavation increased the risk of embankment failure due to overtopping, piping and instability. This paper discusses the measures taken to manage those dam safety risks, and includes:

● use of a temporary system consisting of six large siphons to regulate the lake level to a Restricted Full Supply Level (Restricted FSL). This encompassed the optimisation of lake level and capacity of siphons required to balance competing risks; dam safety, environmental, community and water security. This optimisation was based on a probabilistic assessment of hydrological inflows and lake levels, the development of a flow management plan;

● implementation of a Dam Safety Management Plan which outlined the roles and responsibilities for
managing dam safety during construction at each pre-determined lake level trigger levels. This includes how the contractor was involved to ensure quick response from the “eyes and ears on the ground”; and,

● development of recommended construction methodologies including a “rolling front” and placing
filters vertically to increase production, maintain quality and limit the extent of embankment excavation underway.
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2021 Papers

2021 – Flood Modelling of Cooma Water Storage Tank Failure
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Meizhiwen Zheng, Nimal Gamage

This study used MIKE 21 to replicate the Cooma tank failure by varying modelling input parameters. This study explores the mechanism by which flood water can damage buildings and investigated different damage category assessment method to predict building damages.
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2021 Papers

2021 – Ground shaking potential relating to eastern Australian active faults, an example of the Bendigo Region with relevance to water reservoirs and tailings dams
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Dan Clark, Joanne Stephenson, Trevor Allen

We present earthquake ground motions based upon a paleoseismically-validated characteristic earthquake scenario for the ~ 48 km-long Avonmore scarp, which overlies the Meadow Valley Fault, east of Bendigo, Victoria. The results from the moment magnitude MW 7.1 scenario earthquake indicate that ground motions are sufficient to be of concern to nearby mining and water infrastructure. Specifically, the estimated median peak ground acceleration (PGA) exceeds 0.5 g to more than ~ 10 km from the source fault, and a 0.09 g PGA liquefaction threshold is exceeded out to approximately 50-70 kilometres. Liquefaction of susceptible materials, such as mine tailings, may occur to much greater distances. Our study underscores the importance of identifying and characterising potentially active faults in proximity to high failure-consequence dams, including mine tailings dams, particularly in light of the requirement to manage tailing dams for a prolonged period after mine closure.
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2021 Papers

2021 – Holistic tailings management and governance
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Jarrad Coffey and John Plunkett

As tailings standards continue to evolve, a greater focus is being placed on the monitoring of tailings storage facilities (TSFs). While this is a positive development for TSF safety into the future, it is only one component of the work required to implement Performance Based Risk Informed (PBRI) management. There is also a significant human element that can be aided by reducing the time spent of personnel sourcing/aggregating data and instead focussing on decision making. It is discussed in this paper how a more holistic approach to monitoring via a dashboard that displays all management data relevant to a portfolio of TSFs can be applied in parallel to risk assessment to work towards the goal of PBRI. The dashboard also facilitates review and governance activities, which are central to the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management. An example of the dashboard utilised at Rio Tinto Iron Ore is presented to provide an example of such a system and its benefits.
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2021 Papers

2021 – Importance of adequate characterisation of fissured clay in dam foundations, a case study
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Yuqi Tan, Behrooz Ghahreman-Nejad, Keith Seddon

Inadequate geotechnical investigation and hence undetected issues within the dam foundation have been responsible for many dam failures in the past. Fissured clay in the foundation poses a significant risk to the stability of the dam if it is not adequately detected and characterised. This paper presents a framework to evaluate the strength characteristics of fissured clay and its effect on the stability and performance of an embankment dam. The strength of fissured clay can be characterised from conventional triaxial test result based on the dip angle of the fissure plane. A design chart for the strength of the fissure has been developed based on the dip angle. The stability assessment for a tailings dam indicated that the dip angle of the fissure has significant impact on the overall stability of the embankment when the angle of the fissure aligns with the angle of the critical failure plane. Both fissure strength and fissure angle should be carefully evaluated for a site where fissured clay is observed.
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2021 Papers

2021 – Improving Survey Monitoring Techniques – Real-Time Monitoring Systems
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Thomas Ridgway, Nic Polmear, Hugh Tassell

All industries, inclusive of the dams and tailings industry use some form of monitoring and reporting to confirm items or services are functioning properly or correct. In engineering, we seek to use both manual and automated systems to both qualifiably and quantifiably define the suitability of a process or structure/item. As the dams industry continues to evolve with technology and with ongoing developments in stewardship expectations for both water dams and tailings dams the industry is beginning to move into automation of their instrumentation systems. This process has recently been undertaken at a mine in NSW with the development of both a near real-time survey monitoring and visualisation system as well as a monthly photographic assessment system. This paper will set out the process undertaken to assess the surveillance monitoring requirements for the mine, details of the design, implementation of a near real-time monitoring system and the difficulties associated with the work.
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2021 – Lessons learnt from the application of HEC-LifeSim 2.0 to multiple dams across Australia
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Hench Wang, Edward Funnell, Albert Shen, Matt Scorah, Peter Hill

The use of simulation models to assess dam failure consequences has progressively advanced in Australia over the past few years. For example, it is now common for HEC-LifeSim to be used to estimate potential loss of life from the failure of large dams with large populations at risk downstream. Since its introduction to Australia, numerous presentations and papers have been provided by USACE and industry professionals that highlight the benefits of using HEC-LifeSim Version 1.0.1 for a range of different case studies.

This paper identifies some of the new features in the latest version of HEC-LifeSim that can improve the robustness and defensibility of the potential loss of life estimates for dambreak consequence assessments. The techniques that have been used to overcome these challenges are also discussed using some case studies.

The first case study demonstrates the sensitivity of the model performance and potential loss of life to changes in version and number of iterations used to simulate the life loss. This is done by comparing the differences in simulation run time and life loss between the previous and new versions of HEC-LifeSim for an example model. The second case study presents an example application of both versions of HEC-LifeSim to compare the results between one version and the other for a different dam and the final case study illustrates an improved method for interrogating the available outputs from HEC-LifeSim to provide the user with more information that otherwise could not be obtained from the default outputs.
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2021 Papers

2021 – Maintaining and increasing efficiency in reservoirs – geomembranes and floating photovoltaic panels
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Alberto Scuero, Gabriella Vaschetti, John Cowland

Efficiency in water supply reservoirs, even more so in pumped storage reservoirs, requires good water management and minimisation of water losses. With climate change affecting the quantity of water available for supply and power generation, minimising water losses is becoming more and more crucial, and the most efficient way to achieve this critical objective is to line the reservoir with a watertight geomembrane system. With more than 60 years of use, flexible geomembrane systems have proven to be a dependable technology for new construction as well as for rehabilitation. Efficiency can also be increased by covering the reservoir with a floating geomembrane cover to minimise evaporation losses, and by adding value to the reservoir with the installation of floating photovoltaic panel farms on the surface of the reservoir, to provide or increase electrical power generation. This paper addresses these two aspects of efficiency: water loss minimisation, by presenting concepts and advantages of geomembrane liners, and concepts and application
of floating photovoltaic farms with a case history in a water supply reservoir. The concept of a floating
photovoltaic farm on a pumped storage reservoir, and information on available guidelines for geomembrane systems and floating photovoltaic panels, are also presented.
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2021 – Managing multiple concurrences estimating likelihood and consequence in dam break application, Rainfall based data sparse regions
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Claudia Smith, Shannon Dooland, Adam Broit, Rachel Jensen, Samantha Watt

The estimation of real consequences from dam failure that directly link to the overall likelihood of the failure is a challenging task, particularly in data sparse locations. Previous regional methods have often relied on simplistic assumptions without consideration of the true joint probability of the volume of flow in the downstream tributaries of concurrent catchments. As a result, concurrent downstream flooding directly impacting the consequence in dam break assessment scenarios may be misrepresented. More recently, the adoption of streamflow-based joint probability has become the standard, particularly where consequence estimation is used within the context of risk assessment. This paper progresses the work completed by others to establish a practical treatment method based on rainfall analysis where suitable streamflow information is unavailable. A case study is also presented where this method has improved the understanding of the risk profile associated with a coastal storage based on a better estimate of the likely flood concurrence within the storage and downstream catchments.
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2021 Papers

2021 – Mundaring Weir, Stilling Basin and Outlet Works Risk Assessment
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Sonel Reynolds, Alex Gower, Bob Wark

During the outlet works upgrade in 2017 it was found that the valve pit and stilling basin at Mundaring Weir were not founded on rock. Based on these observations and the arrangement of the spillway and outlet works, it was considered that during significant spillway overflow events, a high velocity jet could displace the stilling basin slabs, erode the underlying material, and progress to failure of the outlet pipe and valve pit. A comprehensive risk assessment was conducted to estimate the likelihood of stilling basin slab uplift, erosion of the underlying material, and failure of the outlet works. A geotechnical investigation was undertaken comprising drilling nine boreholes and a program of geophysical downhole logging. Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) modelling was used to determine the pressure fluctuations and turbulence intensity over the spillway slab which could lead to uplift. The erodibility of the rock mass material below the stilling basin slabs was assessed using the outcomes of the geotechnical investigations and CFD output, with analyses based on the Kirsten Index and eGSI. A net benefit analysis was conducted to assess whether preventative remedial works were justified. Through this process it was demonstrated that the business risk was low and risk reduction measures were not justified.
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2021 Papers

2021 – Paradise Dam and its present and future impact on dam projects
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Chris Nielsen, Ron Guppy, Donna Dunn, David Murray

Following several years of investigations and analysis a serious safety issue with the stability of the primary spillway during major flood events was identified at Paradise Dam that required urgent risk reduction works. The response to this safety issue was significant.

The Inspector General Emergency Management conducted a review into the effectiveness of emergency response if a dam safety event were to occur, taking into consideration process and communications to manage around 40,000 population at risk, comprised mostly of residents within the city of Bundaberg.

An essential works program to reduce the risk was urgently prepared then executed effectively within a calendar year. This short timeframe required significant and novel amendments to Queensland’s laws to bypass normal legislated process for such a major project.

The Paradise Dam Commission of Inquiry was established to identify the root cause of the issues, the facts and circumstances that contributed to them and recommendations to consider for future dam projects. All recommendations from the commission were accepted by the Queensland government and, following an extensive stakeholder engagement exercise, have been implemented through changes in policy and methodology and described in published guideline revisions.

For future dam projects the lessons learnt highlighted the need for early and ongoing engagement of
independent technical review, project governance that is cognisant of risk and the ownership and capacity to bear of that risk, the need to consider testing to confirm critical design parameters and the need for an effective regulator. The essential works program has established a precedent for the timely and appropriate application of risk reduction measures.
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2021 – Poster Paper – Aspects considered in the selection of individual risk tolerability threshold for referable dams in Queensland
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Chris Nielsen, Irene Buckman

As individuals, we are concerned about how a risk affects us and the things we value
personally. We may be willing to live with a risk if it secures us certain benefits and if the
risk is kept low and clearly controlled. We are less tolerant of risks over which we have little
control.

ANCOLD’s risk assessment guideline (2003) identifies an individual risk threshold as being
one where “the dam safety risk to an individual should be close to the average background
risk of the population”. This is a principle of equity, where “all individuals have
unconditional rights to certain levels of protection” (HSE, 2001). The definition of
population at risk applied to Queensland’s referable dams (DNRME, 2018), being
individuals within a residence or workplace and typically not participating in any risky
activities such as driving a vehicle or walking through flooded waters, provides further
justification of this right.

In practice addressing societal risk tolerances and duty of care considerations may result in
individual risks being substantially lower than the thresholds. This may not always be the
case and, irrespective, should not distort the purpose of the individual risk tolerance test;
the principle of equity that drives individual risk tolerability has foundations in our societal
values and is easily and widely understood as a core value. This should be succinctly
described when justifying expenditure on risky infrastructure such as dams.
This poster describes aspects to consider when selecting a threshold individual risk
tolerance. Subject to site-specific considerations of the particular age group of individuals
most at risk, the wider benefit of the dam to society and ALARP, a single threshold
individual risk tolerance of less than 10-5 per annum (or 1 in 100,000 years) would appear
reasonable.

The aspects described are elaborated in the revised Guidelines on Safety Standards for
Referable Dams, soon to be published on the Queensland Government website (RDMW,
2021).
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2021 Papers

2021 – Quantifying the minimum epistemic uncertainty required PSHA input models
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Dr Mark Leonard

The quantification of the 85% and 95% hazard fractiles, as required by the ANCOLD 2019 Guidelines for design of dams, is investigated. It is found that there are four independent sources of uncertainty in the PSHA input models that have a significant effect on the hazard. So all four need to be quantified, particularly for Extreme and High A consequent dams. It is also found that the uncertainty of many of the other parameters, which are routinely included in probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, have minimal effect on either the mean or the higher fractiles so do not necessarily need to be routinely included. The complexity of the input models required to satisfy the new standards are substantially higher than those routinely used in prior decades.
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2021 – Recommended skills for dam safety management personnel
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Chris Nielsen

Management of dams requires the use of experienced dam engineers and other competent personnel familiar with all relevant basic principles, technical guidelines, articles and manuals. This requires appropriate qualifications, registrations and adequate knowledge and experience relevant to the type of dam and the task required.

Engineering services in Queensland must comply with the Professional Engineers Act 2002 which requires a registered professional engineer of Queensland (RPEQ) to undertake or directly supervise an engineering service. Attributes in addition to RPEQ are recommended for personnel responsible for dam safety management. Inputs are often required from non -engineering technical specialists, such as geologists. Supervising these inputs in the context of meeting the Professional Engineers Act 2002 should be considered.

A matrix of skills for dam safety management personnel has been prepared as part of the Queensland dam safety management guideline and subject to extensive stakeholder feedback in its preparation. The matrix consists of a list of roles typically required for dam safety management and, for each role, a corresponding set of recommended core attributes.
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2021 Papers

2021 – Regulatory risk – a proposed framework for contractual accountability of the Crown of regulatory changes
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Arnold Dix

Regulatory risk for large civil engineering projects such as dams and hydropower schemes can be larger than the engineering risks. The seriousness of project regulatory risks is rarely acknowledged publicly and almost never dealt with contractually. The recent adoption by the World Bank of the FIDIC/ITA Emerald Book contractual framework introduces geotechnical baseline reports as a contractual mechanism for managing ground risk in World Bank hydro projects. Regulatory risks created by government agencies and utilities due to changing project requirements can likewise be managed by adopting the concept of geotechnical baselines to regulatory impositions as a baseline report.

Government agencies changing regulatory burdens mid project can fairly be held accountable for the
burdens of those changes by establishing regulatory baselines at the earliest stages of a project. By
contractually embedding regulatory risk baselines, governments and their agencies can adjust their
payments to reflect the changed cost in delivering an agreed project caused by regulatory changes. In this way the compensation for delivering a project more closely aligns with its value and cost. A regulatory baseline report in reducing project exposure due to regulatory change driven costs is a new tool in more efficient and competitive project delivery.

A transparent mechanism for costing regulatory change risk and apportioning it in accordance with pre agreed mechanisms, is an innovation of great use to the dam and hydropower sector.
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2021 Papers

2021 – Remedial Works To Lock and Weir One – It seemed like a good idea in the design office
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Christopher Dann, Chad Martin, Garry Fyfe, Nigel Rutherford

This paper presents a case study on remedial works that were undertaken at Lock and Weir One
along the River Murray, that to our knowledge are the first of their kind in Australia.
The weir structure’s left abutment is comprised of a stepped concrete structure founded on timber
piles, with timber sheet piles extending beneath the structure to cut off seepage through underlying
alluvium. A piping incident occurred at the left abutment in late 2014 and a filter blanket was
installed as an emergency response measure. A detailed review of historic construction documents
showed that there was a “missing” timber sheet pile upstream of the piping boil. Geotechnical
investigations, including piezometer installation confirmed the missing timber sheet pile was the
likely cause of the piping incident. A piping risk assessment showed the residual risk of further piping
was reasonably high.

A range of remedial works was considered as permanent risk reduction works. However, these
solutions required extensive temporary works to expose the missing timber sheet pile including a
cofferdam to access the defect and partial demolition of a recently constructed fishway structure.
An alternate Secant ‘Grout Column’ solution was developed that comprised targeted drilling and
backfill grouting to close the gap where the sheet pile was not installed and to grout an inferred void
under the abutment structure. This solution was successful at reducing seepage through the
abutment structure, as indicated by monitoring piezometers.
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