Mojtaba E. Kan, Hossein A. Taiebat and Mahdi Taiebat
In design of new embankment dams or evaluation of the performance of existing earthfill and rockfill dams, the Newmark-type Simplified Methods are widely used to estimate the earthquake-induced displacements. These methods are simple, inexpensive, and substantially less time consuming as compared to the complicated stress–deformation approaches. They are especially recommended by technical guidelines to be used as a screening tool, to identify embankments with marginal factor of safety. The methods would serve as a reliable screening tool had they always resulted in conservative estimates of settlements. However, a number of studies in the last 15 years show the contrary. This paper provides a critical review of the fundamental theory behind the simplified Newmark-type methods. Cases in which the results of the simplified methods are reportedly non conservative are further investigated and possible reasons are discussed, that may be taken into account in future design and investigations of Australian dams. The reliability of the simplified methods is examined based on the existing thresholds proposed in the literature and accounting for the embankment geometry and type, and for the seismic activity characterization. A recently proposed practical framework is further elaborated to demonstrate its effectiveness in the study of seismic behaviour of embankment dams. In particular, the case study of Zipingpu concrete faced rockfill dam in China is discussed where all widely used simplified procedures failed to predict the order of deformations experienced by the Dam under a recent strong earthquake event.
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James Stuart, Michael Hughes
Several recent rain events in Australia have resulted in impoundment flood levels where there was a surprising variability between the Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) of the flood level and that of the rainfall. The issue was highlighted during the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry (QFCI, 2011) by the Queensland Dam Safety Regulator who suggested there may be a problem with design hydrology after a dam safety event that saw impoundment levels of around 1:9000 AEP with a 1:200 AEP catchment rainfall at North Pine Dam, north of Brisbane in 2011. Wide disparities have occurred at Wivenhoe Dam west of Brisbane, at Callide Dam, west of Gladstone and at other locations.
This paper examines the Generalised Short Duration Method (GSDM) (BoM, 2003) and the Revised Generalised Tropical Storm Method (GTSMR) (BoM, 2003) typically used for dam flood capacity assessments in an attempt to explain the variability outlined above and whether it is, in part, exacerbated by the methods themselves.
It finds that processes of generalising rainfall depth, intensity, temporal and spatial characteristics are working together with adopted hydrological methods to contribute to such variability, that in the worst case could lead to PMF levels in dams with much less rainfall than the associated PMP would infer.
Moreover, two key assumptions; that of AEP neutrality (AEP of rainfall is equal to that of the flood) and frequency of PMP based on catchment area, which are the foundations stones of our understanding of flood frequency for large structures, are found to be untested or simply interim advice. This leads to the conclusion that the likelihood of floods in the range 2000 year AEP to PMF may continue to show surprising variability, potentially of an order of magnitude or more, compared to the rainfall AEP.
There is a need for a review of these methods and potentially provision of interim guidance as these methods are currently being used in dam upgrade programs throughout Australia and are also the basis for emergency planning. The identification of these issues concerns current methods and are independent to any discussion on climate change.Prior to commencing, it is worth defining two terms that re-occur throughout the document:
Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP): The probability that a given rainfall total accumulated over a given duration will be exceeded in any one year. AEP Neutrality is the theory that assumes the probability of the rainfall can be transferred to the resulting flood.
Average Variability Method (AVM): Technique for estimating design temporal pattern of average variability to ensure AEP Neutrality in transition from PMP to PMP design flood
D Stephens, S Lang, P Hill, M Scorah
Robust estimates of the duration of flood overtopping are a key input into the dam safety risk assessment process. For embankment dams, the likelihood of erosion of the dam crest, downstream face and eventual unravelling of the embankment are heavily dependent on the duration of water flowing over the crest. Similarly, the chance of erosion of the abutments of concrete dams is strongly linked to the duration of floodwaters overtopping the dam. Previously, it has been difficult to define the annual exceedance probability (AEP) of the flood required to cause overtopping of a certain depth for a certain duration, and coarse assessments have typically been made based on critical storm durations of the dam crest flood (DCF). This approach carries significant uncertainty, particularly for structures on smaller catchments where the critical storm duration on outflow may be relatively short. In these cases, it has been difficult to confirm with any reliability that the flood required to achieve a significant duration of overtopping has an AEP close to that of the DCF. This paper describes a new algorithm that has been incorporated into the RORB hydrological model which allows for a frequency curve of flood overtopping duration to be determined within a Monte Carlo framework. The results of this analysis are presented for a case study of a quantitative risk assessment, to demonstrate how the outcomes influenced numerous aspects of the risk analysis process.
Lesa Delaere, Dr Natalie Clark, Dr Shayan Maleki
Waterway barriers, such as dams and weirs, have the potential to impact aquatic fauna species through the restriction of fauna movement and direct injury and mortality of individuals. Without suitably designed aquatic fauna passages and features to minimise injury and mortality, these barriers may adversely affect the viability of local and regional populations, through disruption to critical behaviours (e.g. breeding, dispersal).
The Lower Fitzroy River Infrastructure Project comprises of two weirs on the Fitzroy River in central Queensland. Two threatened turtle species, the Fitzroy River turtle and the white-throated snapping turtle, and a range of fish species needed consideration of species-specific requirements and development of targeted design solutions.
This paper discusses the ecological needs of these species as well as features incorporated into the design to reduce the impact of the weirs. The design incorporated modular fishlocks, gate, spillway and stilling basin features, an innovative turtle passage, special considerations for outlets and operational aspects. The design was further subject to complexity due to the variation in river flows, zero flow to approximately 9,000m3/sat bank full, and needed to account for a wide range of operational scenarios with respect to the species impacts.The paper also includes a discussion on computational fluid dynamics modelling (CFD) which was used to validate the design of fish passage structures.
David Guest, George Samios, Richard Rodd
Tenterfield Creek Dam is a 15m high concrete gravity structure that was constructed in 1930 and raised by 1.83m and stabilised using 97 post-tensioned ground anchors in 1974.Recent stability assessments concluded that the dam does not satisfy the ANCOLD Guidelines for Stability of Gravity Dams and that the situation is likely to deteriorate given the questionable performance of the post-tensioning cables and on the grounds of continuing corrosion and demonstrated loss of load.Tenterfield Shire Council is committed to improving the stability of the dam to meet the requirements of the NSW Dam sSafety Committee and engaged Public Works Advisory to assist them achieve this outcome.
Public Works Advisory prepared a dam upgrade options study which selected two options for further consideration. The estimated costs of the two preferred options were found to be potentially close;therefore Tenterfield Shire Council requested that both options be taken to detail design and tender stage to allow the market to indicate which option was in-fact better value.Factors other than construction costs were also considered in the options evaluation process and these factors influenced the selection outcome. The two upgrade options of lowest cost were the conventional gravity dam strengthen solutions i.e. installation of new post-tensioned ground anchors and downstream mass concrete buttressing. The decision to proceed to tender with two options was supported by the other key funding stakeholder, DPI Water.
This paper provides some unique insight on the comparison of conventional upgrade options for concrete gravity dams and also examines some interesting design aspects encounter edduring the design development process
C.Jolly and J.Green
New rare design rainfalls were released for Australia in February 2017, for durations from one to seven days and probabilities from 1in 100Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) up to 1 in 2000 AEP.The differences between the previous rare design rainfalls using estimated Cooperative Research Centre –FOcussed Rainfall Growth Estimation (CRC-FORGE) method and the new rare design rainfall estimates vary with location, duration and probability. In this paper, these differences are explored spatially through the use of national maps, comparing percentage change between the two datasets for selected durations and probabilities. Before this comparison with the new rare design rainfalls could be completed, the State-basedestimates had to be resampled and aggregated to form a national data set for Australia.For rare design rainfalls, it is often the catchment values that are required to determine the gross rainfall for design purposes. The impact of the revised areal reductions factors and rare design rainfalls is explored through case study catchments in Tasmania.