Many quantified risk assessments finish the failure mode event tree at the estimated occurrence of an embankment breach leading to dam failure outflows and downstream consequences. In some situations, for dams with multiple embankments with potentially different consequences downstream of each embankment, the possibility for further breaches may be pertinent if there may potentially be higher consequences for a multiple breach scenario. The location of an initial breach and sequence of subsequent breaches could also result in different contributions to total risk.
This paper discusses a method applied to investigate the conditional probability of flood overtopping breaches for multiple earth-fill embankments with grass covered downstream slopes.
For the subject dam, preliminary modelling identified that for a flood overtopping breach of an embankment the breach’s development may not be sufficient to reduce the lake level and sustained overtopping flow over the remaining embankment crests could lead to further embankment breaches.
A Monte Carlo dam breach simulation modelling approach was used with a large number of flood events. The simulation modelling considered erosion initiation for a grass slope due to the combination of velocity and duration of flow, and erosion continuing to breach based on duration of flow after erosion initiation. Potential uncertainty of erosion initiation and erosion continuing to breach were represented with probability distributions in the Monte Carlo modelling.
The results from the large number of dam breach simulations were then analysed with post processing to derive conditional probabilities for single or multiple breaches and breach sequence.
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The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has a robust Dam Safety Program (DSP) that utilizes risk- informed decision-making to prioritize its portfolio of dams in need of further study and modifications. USACE also utilizes a two-tiered governance structure in which one body makes portfolio recommendations around risk management while the other body oversees the execution of the agency’s routine DSP and makes policy recommendations. The routine program consists of the activities required for interim risk reduction measures, inspections, instrumentation, monitoring, assessments, operations and maintenance, emergency action planning, training, and other dam safety activities. An internal program management tool exists to monitor and track all these activities and generate metrics around execution of the routine DSP, however, it does not include metrics around other aspects of the DSP like governance, asset management, public safety and security, flow controls, or audits/reviews. USACE hopes to identify gaps in its DSP that can be used to correct shortcomings, continuously improve, and to increase the resilience of its DSP, which will enable each project to deliver benefits to the Nation. The Centre for Energy Advancement through Technological Innovation (CEATI), through its Dam Safety Interest Group (DSIG), collaboratively developed a spreadsheet tool known as the Dam Safety Maturity Matrix (DSMM). The DSMM is a facilitated exercise used to help evaluate how well-developed a program is across 12 elements considered to be typical and important of most dam safety programs. Each of the elements is then deaggregated into sub-elements, each of which can be evaluated by the team. The maturity ranges across 5 levels from Needing Improvement to Leading Edge. After all sub-elements are evaluated, an aggregate maturity level is computed that gives an estimation of the overall maturity level of the program. USACE will present the results of its pilot project using the DSMM and share lessons learned regarding its implementation. The short-term goal is to identify program strengths and areas for improvement, while the long-term goal of USACE using the DSMM is to participate in bench- marking across multiple agencies and international dam owners regarding their dam safety programs, for which has never been done to the knowledge of this author.
Sedimentation of reservoirs is acknowledged as a global issue and likely impacts water storage capacity in Australia. This major challenge to our future water supply is a highly complex process with deposition leading to infilling of the reservoir of course sediments in headwaters following major inflows, progressively to finer fractions towards dam walls. Wave action and catchment inflows during drawdown conditions will further transport and redistribute sediments into the main body of the reservoir.
Managing reservoir sedimentation requires an understanding of the sediment types and deposition patterns across the reservoir. Once the location and type of sediment is known, strategies to mitigate the effects on the reservoir can be determined. Methods typically used for determining sedimentation of a reservoir are empirical or modeling techniques that rely on detailed data from inflow events, suspended solids loads and flow rates. In the absence of this data, more direct measurements to quantify the amount of sediment present can be used. Direct measurements are more robust than modelling approaches that utilise rating curves that can result in over estimations of the sediment present. This study combined several measurement techniques to produce high spatial coverage of the reservoir floor. Detailed validation of this approach was undertaken in one representative reservoir prior to adopting this approach across multiple reservoirs.
Australasian and global need and demand for water resilience often changes reservoir use from single purpose to multipurpose. These changes are affecting existing dam and reservoir structures and operations, as well as those planned or under construction. The International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD) recognised this issue and established a working group to investigate and prepare Bulletin 171 titled Multipurpose Water Storage “Essential Elements and Emerging Trends”, which is now and available on the ICOLD website.
The Bulletin’s scope was to provide a global view on the dynamics of multipurpose water schemes (MPWS) by presenting essential elements and emerging trends for planning and managing reservoir and dam infrastructure, with source data collected from 52 global case studies including five from New Zealand and two from Australia.
Water storage design and implementation has evolved significantly in recent decades, and further
development is expected as innovative approaches emerge in search of optimal sustainable solutions. The focus of Bulletin 171 is therefore not on what should be done, but rather what is being done, how, and by whom. Essential elements represent a recommended checklist for implementing MPWS storage, while emerging trends is a snapshot of the current state-of-the-art for MPWS projects.
This paper presents a summary of Bulletin 171 and its findings, and a brief overview of the new and
complementary ICOLD Committee ‘T’ which is assessing emerging challenges and needs for dams in the 21st century.
New Zealand’s economy is heavily dependent on export revenues generated by primary industries such as dairy, meat, agriculture, horticulture and viticulture. For these sectors, securing water for irrigation has been a key factor for growth. New Zealand has a temperate climate with generally wet winters and dry summers. The availability of water in the dry summer period is very important for these sectors to maximise production. A considerable amount of investment has already been made in the construction and operation of reservoirs for irrigation purposes. However, because climate change effects (more frequent occurrences of extreme events such as droughts and flash floods) have been observed around the world and the need for restrictions imposed on the use of water resources by regulators for environmental reasons, the need for developing water storage reservoirs has become more essential than ever. Climate change effects are already being factored into current practice. Drawing on the author’s experience, this paper discusses the potential impacts of climate change, with an emphasis on the effects of drought, on the design, construction and operation of water storage facilities with changes necessary to improve the resilience of new dams in
response to climate change. The paper also aims at raising awareness among the farming community so they can appreciate the associated risks and issues with climate change and be more cautious about planning and budgeting for their future investments in dam and irrigation projects.
There are currently around four new flood detention reservoirs (retarding basins) built each year in UK, which although only being modest structures with median height of 4m and reservoir capacity of 300,000m3 pose a significant risk to the community as they are located immediately upstream of the community they are protecting. These communities range from around five to several thousand households.
The cost and therefore viability of these structures can vary depending on the number of defensive features built into the design, which raises interesting conflicting issues of public safety contrasted to vulnerability to property inundation in operational (say, 1 in 100 chance) floods.
The authors have designed and supervised over 30 flood detention reservoirs in the UK in the last 20 years. This paper describes the engineering decisions which need to be made regarding defensive measures and the resilience of these structures to withstand flood loading on demand. Examples of measures to include resilience are described, with discussion of when selection of the options to increase resilience against a particular failure mode should be mandatory, and when it may be more appropriate to consider it on a case by case risk-based approach. The paper will also discuss more strategic issues of how to balance making flood detention reservoirs affordable, while at the same time maintaining high standards of public safety and compares Australian and UK approaches.