While structures such as a dam walls, pipelines, gas storage tanks, and nuclear facilities are vulnerable to the shaking from earthquakes, they are even more susceptible to differential movement on faults passing beneath their foundations.
In the past, the probability of surface rupture of a fault was calculated by making some simplistic assumptions about the distribution of earthquake magnitudes. Improved databases of earthquake ground faulting now allow the probability of surface rupture to be estimated in a more realistic fashion. Computing software that uses a Monte Carlo approach has been developed to allow the effect of various scenario choices on rupture probability to be investigated.
Using this software, it is found that the most significant influence on rupture probability is the long-term fault slip-rate. Other assumptions about the faulting style, maximum magnitude and conversion parameters have only a moderate influence on the results.
There have been several instances in recent history in Australia of surface faulting due to earthquakes, but there has been only limited damage to infrastructure due to the remoteness of these earthquakes. The software that has been developed will allow a considered assessment and comparison of the hazard and risk due to both ground shaking from earthquakes and from surface rupture.
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An assessment of dam failure consequence for Jandowae Water Supply Dam in South-West Queensland was performed using HEC-LifeSim. The purpose of the assessment was to investigate the applicability of the software to inform decisions on an appropriate regulatory pathway for the dam that reflects the consequences of failure. This paper details the development of the hydrologic and hydraulic models behind the HEC-LifeSim simulations, the assignment of key parameters and their sensitivities, and a comparison of predictions to existing procedures for assessing potential loss of life and populations at risk. The paper reflects upon the level of effort required to develop HEC-LifeSim assessments and the relative benefits gained using this information in the regulatory space.
This paper presents an updated simplified technique for estimation of extreme floods in Queensland. This technique will be of use to practicing hydrologists and engineers working on early phase investigations of dams, weirs, and other infrastructure that requires flood resilience for extreme floods. The equations presented in this paper will provide practitioners with a robust yet simple to apply technique to rapidly estimate peak PMPF and PMF flows (inflows for dams) for Queensland catchments. This will assist feasibility and optioneering of infrastructure without significant cost overheads associated with often complex and time-consuming extreme flood estimates.
Many mapped faults in the south-eastern highlands of New South Wales and Victoria are associated with apparently youthful topography, suggesting that faulting may have played a role in shaping the modern landscape. This has been demonstrated to be the case for the Lake George Fault, and may reasonably be inferred for the poorly characterised Murrumbidgee, Khancoban, Tantangara, Berridale Wrench and Tawonga faults. More than a dozen nearby major faults with similarly youthful topography are uncharacterised. In general, fault locations and extents are inconsistent across different scales of geologic mapping, and rupture lengths, slip rates and other fault behaviours remain largely unquantified. A more comprehensive understanding of these faults is required to support safety assessments for communities and large infrastructure in the region.
Investigations into the core material of earth fill dams are undertaken reluctantly due to the potential to cause damage to the embankment. Where investigations are required, Cone Penetration Testing (CPT) is increasingly used to assist with the geotechnical assessment of dam embankments. The risk of hydraulic fracture within embankment core material is well known and procedures are typically adopted to minimise the risk of hydraulic fracture during remediation of the holes. Backfilling is typically done in stages allowing for an initial set of the cement/bentonite grout mixture prior to subsequent lifts.
While the risk of hydraulic fracture is well understood, the lesser known risk of pneumatic fracture is a possibility where certain conditions exist. This paper discusses CPT investigations at Fairbairn Dam, operated by Sunwater in Central Queensland, and the challenges faced in undertaking the remediation of the CPT holes. The potential for pneumatic fracture of the embankment core was highlighted during the investigations and details of alternative techniques adopted for reinstatement of the holes are presented. Recommendations are made to appropriately manage the risk of pneumatic fracture when undertaking CPT’s through embankment core.
Two-dimensional hydraulic modelling technology has advanced significantly in recent years, providing powerful and flexible tools that are now routinely used for a wide variety of flood risk assessments. Assessing the downstream impacts of catastrophic dam failure represents an extreme test for the accuracy and stability of hydraulic models. Catastrophic dam failure can present an extreme risk to downstream infrastructure and public safety. Hence, it is important to have confidence in the estimated magnitude of potential impacts to design suitable, costeffective mitigation measures. The highly visual output of two-dimensional models adds credibility to their results. However, validation data for extreme hydraulic conditions is rarely available, resulting in uncertainty in the accuracy of model predictions and in the risks associated with dam failure. By validating numerical model results against analytical solutions for cases of simple geometry and also against realworld data, an improved level of confidence can be obtained in the accuracy of the model representation of these extreme hydraulic conditions. In this paper, we assessed the capability of the TUFLOW hydraulic modelling software package to accurately simulate an idealised dam break scenario by comparing the model results to analytical solutions. We also compared the model results for coastal inundation by a tsunami to real-world data from the 2004 Banda Ache (Indonesia) tsunami. The results showed that the HPC solver version of TUFLOW correctly captures the dam break flood fronts and the flood wave propagation and TUFLOW HPC is well suited for dam break flood modelling.