In the face of potential future climate change, it is important that reservoir asset owners and operators consider what such change could mean for the integrity and operations of their assets. This must be developed as an integral part of risk-based management, with a systematic consideration of the uncertain future implications of climate change and their potential consequences.
Systematic assessment of the consequences of potential climate related events/loads should be included as an integral component of a risk-based approach to dam safety management. The magnitude of potential consequences can be used to inform the prioritisation and management responses to these conditions, regardless of probability of occurrence. Designing to accommodate exceedance events is an important response in this process.
The adaptive management process provides a framework within which the implications of uncertain future conditions and risks can be systematically identified and managed, forming the basis of agreeing a defined ‘pathway’ for monitoring and implementation of management actions. The concept of Adaptation Pathways can be utilised for reservoir adaptation, setting out the long-term risk informed process to manage operations and risks.
Two-dimensional hydraulic modelling technology has advanced significantly in recent years, providing powerful and flexible tools that are now routinely used for a wide variety of flood risk assessments. Assessing the downstream impacts of catastrophic dam failure represents an extreme test for the accuracy and stability of hydraulic models. Catastrophic dam failure can present an extreme risk to downstream infrastructure and public safety. Hence, it is important to have confidence in the estimated magnitude of potential impacts to design suitable, costeffective mitigation measures. The highly visual output of two-dimensional models adds credibility to their results. However, validation data for extreme hydraulic conditions is rarely available, resulting in uncertainty in the accuracy of model predictions and in the risks associated with dam failure. By validating numerical model results against analytical solutions for cases of simple geometry and also against realworld data, an improved level of confidence can be obtained in the accuracy of the model representation of these extreme hydraulic conditions. In this paper, we assessed the capability of the TUFLOW hydraulic modelling software package to accurately simulate an idealised dam break scenario by comparing the model results to analytical solutions. We also compared the model results for coastal inundation by a tsunami to real-world data from the 2004 Banda Ache (Indonesia) tsunami. The results showed that the HPC solver version of TUFLOW correctly captures the dam break flood fronts and the flood wave propagation and TUFLOW HPC is well suited for dam break flood modelling.
The rehabilitation of wet tailings storages is likely to become of increasing importance. In a setting of increasing environmental regulation and oversight, the environmental issues inherent in wet tailings storages will increase in visibility. This will translate through to increased regulatory attention, rehabilitation standards and costs. This scenario will necessitate increased engineering ingenuity and approaches to develop cost effective and robust/ defensible outcomes.
This case study of a coal fired power station ash dam rehabilitation compares a conventional (baseline) rehabilitation strategy and the development of a higher land use, with potentially beneficial outcomes for the owner, the community and the environment.
The baseline rehabilitation was a conventional fit-for-purpose rehabilitation approach consistent with the proposed final land use comprising the creation of a stable, open greenspace environment. The higher land use was an aspirational target style rehabilitation, with the assessed highest and best use for the site that was determined to be an industrial land development. While there will be limitations due to the low strength tailings foundation, this higher land use is considered an appropriate stretch target and is a feasible outcome for this site.
Junction and Clover Dams are central spillway slab-and-buttress dams located in Victoria. Previous safety reviews and assessments of the dams concluded that neither dam met modern dam design standards and remedial works were recommended, including infilling the slab-and-buttress dams with mass concrete to sustain seismic loadings. These conclusions were based largely on the assessed seismic hazard at the site, the results of response spectrum analyses and observed conditions of the dams including alkali-aggregate reaction of the concrete. AECOM used current seismic hazard assessment techniques, conducted concrete investigations and testing, assessed long term surveillance monitoring results and used modern finite element techniques to demonstrate that no upgrade works were required at either dam resulting in a significant saving for AGL.
The paper describes the development of UK guidance on reservoir drawdown capacity. The guidance provides for a consistent thought process to be used in determining the recommended capacity. A basic recommended standard is proposed for embankment dams which varies with the consequences of failure of a dam. The drawdown rate for the highest consequence dams is 5% dam height/day with an upper limit of 1m/day. Engineering judgement is used to vary this standard allowing for ‘other considerations’ including the vulnerability to rapid dam failure, surveillance and precedent practice. A different approach is proposed for concrete/masonry dam, which considers the prime purpose of drawdown being to lower the reservoir in a reasonable timeframe to permit repairs rather than rapid lowering to avert failure. The UK approach is compared with that used in Australia and suggestions made for where its use may be appropriate.
An assessment of dam failure consequence for Jandowae Water Supply Dam in South-West Queensland was performed using HEC-LifeSim. The purpose of the assessment was to investigate the applicability of the software to inform decisions on an appropriate regulatory pathway for the dam that reflects the consequences of failure. This paper details the development of the hydrologic and hydraulic models behind the HEC-LifeSim simulations, the assignment of key parameters and their sensitivities, and a comparison of predictions to existing procedures for assessing potential loss of life and populations at risk. The paper reflects upon the level of effort required to develop HEC-LifeSim assessments and the relative benefits gained using this information in the regulatory space.