The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Risk Management Center (RMC) developed the Reservoir Frequency Analysis software (RMC-RFA) to facilitate, enhance, and expedite flood hazard assessments within the USACE Dam Safety Program. RMC-RFA is a stochastic flood modeling software that employs advanced statistical and computing techniques, allowing a user to perform a screening-level stage-frequency analysis on a desktop PC with runtimes on the order of seconds to a few minutes. RMC-RFA utilizes an inflow volume-based stochastic simulation framework that treats the seasonal occurrence of the flood event, the antecedent reservoir stage, inflow volume, and the inflow flood hydrograph shape as uncertain variables rather than fixed values. In order to construct uncertainty bounds for reservoir stage-frequency estimates, RMC-RFA employs a two looped, nested Monte Carlo methodology. The natural variability of the reservoir stage is simulated in the inner loop defined as a realization, which comprises many thousands of events, while the knowledge uncertainty in the inflow volume-frequency distribution is simulated in the outer loop, which comprises many realizations.
Stage-frequency curves derived with RMC-RFA are compared to those derived with more complex, precipitation-based simulation frameworks, such as the Monte Carlo Reservoir Analysis Model (MCRAM), the Stochastic Event Flood Model (SEFM), and the Watershed Analysis Tool (HEC-WAT). The inflow volume-based framework employed by RMC-RFA produces stage-frequency curves that strongly agree with the more complex, precipitation-based methods. Furthermore, the results from the alternative methods fall within the RMC-RFA uncertainty bounds, demonstrating its robustness. In this sense, the RMC-RFA simulation framework lends itself to a value of information approach to risk management, where knowledge uncertainty can be efficiently quantified at a screening-level assessment, and then the value of performing more complex and sophisticated studies to reduce uncertainty can be considered.
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Two-dimensional hydraulic modelling technology has advanced significantly in recent years, providing powerful and flexible tools that are now routinely used for a wide variety of flood risk assessments. Assessing the downstream impacts of catastrophic dam failure represents an extreme test for the accuracy and stability of hydraulic models. Catastrophic dam failure can present an extreme risk to downstream infrastructure and public safety. Hence, it is important to have confidence in the estimated magnitude of potential impacts to design suitable, costeffective mitigation measures. The highly visual output of two-dimensional models adds credibility to their results. However, validation data for extreme hydraulic conditions is rarely available, resulting in uncertainty in the accuracy of model predictions and in the risks associated with dam failure. By validating numerical model results against analytical solutions for cases of simple geometry and also against realworld data, an improved level of confidence can be obtained in the accuracy of the model representation of these extreme hydraulic conditions. In this paper, we assessed the capability of the TUFLOW hydraulic modelling software package to accurately simulate an idealised dam break scenario by comparing the model results to analytical solutions. We also compared the model results for coastal inundation by a tsunami to real-world data from the 2004 Banda Ache (Indonesia) tsunami. The results showed that the HPC solver version of TUFLOW correctly captures the dam break flood fronts and the flood wave propagation and TUFLOW HPC is well suited for dam break flood modelling.
Multiple-arch dam technology enjoyed a certain popularity between the fifties and seventies, but was later discontinued for practical reasons. The multiple-arch dam that is the subject of this paper is especially peculiar since it was built using prefabricated elements and a combination of several pre-stressed steel systems.
This dam consists of 17 buttressed arches with a maximum height of 35 m on a limestone and dolostone foundation. It has a crest length of 531 m and a 15 hm3 reservoir. After 55 years in operation, several apparent degradations have surfaced and a study on the safety of the dam is currently being carried out.
The main concern is the dam’s structural safety, which is apparently linked to the integrity of the post-stressed steel elements and the precast elements in the arches. This paper describes the approach chosen for the remediation study, the visual inspection, and the tests developed on the post-stressed steel and concrete, in order to feed a 3D numerical model of the structure.
Earthquakes are a well-known threat to the safety of dams. While this threat is subdued for Australian Dams, the potential for earthquake induced failure of a dam requires risk minimisation in the downstream community through monitoring and emergency response procedures. This paper details WaterNSW’s approach to their development of a Seismic Monitoring Strategy which was to align the business and ensure an appropriate post-seismic response.
The strategy also identifies that a proactive approach to seismic instrumentation can be taken to reduce business risk by aiding decision making should a dam be in a damaged post-seismic state.
The interim outcome of implementing the Seismic Monitoring Strategy resulted in a fast emergency
response time and less overreaction/distraction of dam safety resources in insignificant seismic events. There is opportunity for other Australian dam owners to implement similar systems to = WaterNSW and achieve similar results.
This paper presents an updated simplified technique for estimation of extreme floods in Queensland. This technique will be of use to practicing hydrologists and engineers working on early phase investigations of dams, weirs, and other infrastructure that requires flood resilience for extreme floods. The equations presented in this paper will provide practitioners with a robust yet simple to apply technique to rapidly estimate peak PMPF and PMF flows (inflows for dams) for Queensland catchments. This will assist feasibility and optioneering of infrastructure without significant cost overheads associated with often complex and time-consuming extreme flood estimates.
Millions of dollars are spent on dam upgrade works which are often undertaken to meet the flood security requirements. Prioritisation of the dam upgrade work is based on portfolio risk assessments in which dambreak modelling is an integral part. Concurrent design flow hydrographs of tributaries downstream of dam are required for the assessment of the incremental effect of a dam break scenario. The Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) neutral concurrent tributary flows can be estimated using a bivariate-normal distribution approach.
This paper examines the underlying assumptions made in the application of the bivariate normal distribution approach using observed and design rainfall data for Avon Dam and its downstream tributary catchments. Synthetically generated data was used to illustrate the impact of the log-normal distribution assumption on the AEP neutral concurrent tributary rainfalls. This paper suggests a modification to the bivariate-normal distribution approach to estimate more unbiased AEP neutral concurrent design rainfalls. The use of historical gridded rainfall in the estimation of inter-catchment rainfall correlation is also demonstrated.