2017 – Comparing the New Rare Design Rainfalls with CRCFORGE Estimates

C.Jolly and J.Green

New rare design rainfalls were released for Australia in February 2017, for durations from one to seven days and probabilities from 1in 100Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) up to 1 in 2000 AEP.The differences between the previous rare design rainfalls using estimated Cooperative Research Centre –FOcussed Rainfall Growth Estimation (CRC-FORGE) method and the new rare design rainfall estimates vary with location, duration and probability. In this paper, these differences are explored spatially through the use of national maps, comparing percentage change between the two datasets for selected durations and probabilities. Before this comparison with the new rare design rainfalls could be completed, the State-basedestimates had to be resampled and aggregated to form a national data set for Australia.For rare design rainfalls, it is often the catchment values that are required to determine the gross rainfall for design purposes. The impact of the revised areal reductions factors and rare design rainfalls is explored through case study catchments in Tasmania.

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