Phillip Jordan, Alan Seed, Rory Nathan, Peter Hill, Eva Kordomenidi, Clive Pierce, Michael Leonard
This paper discusses the stochastic framework that was used to generate the 5449 sets of inflow hydrographs, to develop and stress test a dam operations model. The stochastic simulations were driven by 600 different space-time patterns of rainfall generated using a stochastic space-time multiplicative cascade model. Eight significant storms were identified in the radar archive to identify parameter sets for the stochastic generation algorithm and 600 replicates of space-time rainfall were generated. The statistical properties of spatial patterns of 48-hour rainfall bursts on eight major subcatchments of the Brisbane River catchment from the 600 stochastic replicates were verified against the same statistics derived from 38 major flood causing rainfall events observed in the catchment. The hydrographs were generated using an URBS rainfall runoff routing model of the Brisbane River catchment, which was calibrated to 38 historical flood events (between 1955 and 2013) and tested on a further 10 historical flood events (between 1887 and 1947).
The stochastically simulated sets of inflow hydrographs were then used to assess the impact of variations in flood operation rules for Wivenhoe and Somerset dams. The stochastically generated events exhibit substantial variability in runoff hydrographs but with variability that is statistically consistent with observed events. The stochastically generated hydrographs provide a considerably more realistic basis for testing the outcomes for different flood operations strategies than the single design event approaches that have previously been adopted.
Guresh Ahuja, Brian Cooper, Olaf Rutgrink and Andrew Thomson
This paper presents details of the State Water Corporation of NSW Australian first temperature control curtain project aimed at dealing with the environmental issue of cold water pollution in dam offtakes. This is a key project focused on dealing with a known environmental issue and reflects changing environmental and social expectations for dam operators. In the concept phases this project was part of the NSW Rivers Environmental Restoration Program (RERP) sub-program ‘better delivery of environmental water’.
The paper presents the development of the design concept including early concept screening and selection, scale model testing, concept design development, hydrodynamic, structural and computational fluid dynamic analyses leading to the final design that has now being constructed. The concept design work was completed in 2011 and following a tender process a design and construct contract was let for the detailed design and construction of the temperature control curtain system. This phase of the work was recently completed and the temperature control curtain is now fully operational. The actual performance and effectiveness of the temperature control curtain will only become evident after a few years of operation and will also hinge on the degree of stratification in the dam.
Two techniques were used to calculate seismic hazard at a number of locations in southeast Australia. To simplify matters only Peak Ground Accelerations were compared.
The first technique used a seismological model of areal source zones that was based on the recorded seismicity as well as geological and tectonic inputs. Each zone was assigned a rate of earthquake activity that had been calculated from the recorded seismicity and a magnitude completeness function. Known geological faults that are also part of the model had to be excluded to allow a direct comparison with the second technique. A standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis then gave PGA values versus return periods. This is the approach that has been used for the current Australian earthquake loading code (AS1170.4).
The second technique used a simple historical approach whereby recorded earthquakes were combined with an attenuation function to directly give the estimated return periods. This approach takes no account of tectonics, geological terranes or faulting – it simply uses the known, recorded earthquake catalogue. This is the technique used in the original Australian earthquake loading code (AS 2121).
The same ground motion attenuation function was used in both techniques but for a direct comparison the aleatory variability was set to zero in the probabilistic case because the historical approach did not include this effect.
In the historical approach the variability in completeness of the recorded catalogue was not considered. It was simply assumed that all earthquakes producing accelerations greater than a given value would be recorded over the last 100 years.
The comparisons were made for minimum considered magnitudes of 4 and 5.
There was general agreement between the two approaches especially at shorter return periods (lower PGA amplitudes). At longer return periods (higher PGA amplitudes) where there were higher uncertainties, the results at some sites diverged.
This simple comparison of two approaches to the same problem of estimating earthquake hazard is shown to be of value in ensuring that the AUS5 model used by SRC is producing results that are consistent with the historically recorded data.
Lyndon Johnson and Jamie Campbell
Data presentation is an important and much discussed aspect of Dam and asset safety worldwide. We rely on drawings and graphs of instrumentation data to tell us things about our assets that are hidden from the eye and to monitor changes linked to failure modes. It’s common that we look at data gaps for our assets, data quality and data processing but how often do we rethink the fundamentals of data presentation?
Engineers and data analysts, as humans, have evolved in a 3D world with our senses to match match. According to Keller GB, et al (2012) almost 20% of the human brain is dedicated to processing vision with up to 60% involved when locating, scaling and referencing objects in 3D space. As a result, 3D is an extremely efficient platform from which to display and disseminate information.
This paper discusses methods to efficiently transfer asset information into 3D and how to present animated surveillance data against asset models. The paper discusses how these methods work, benefits and limitations in the context of modern dam asset portfolio management and presents some key case studies of where and how these methods have assisted with asset diagnoses.
George Samios and Steve Gough
Following an extreme flood event late on Friday 22nd February 2013, water overtopped the dam crest leading to total collapse of the dam’s right embankment and a span of the nearby intake tower access bridge as well as the cutting of power to the dam gates. The dam’s left embankment was also severely damaged. Options considered for remediation of the dam include decommissioning or reinstatement and upgrading to NSW Dams Safety Committee requirements.
Peter Allen and Kevin Bartlett
One of the recommendations of the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry was for the introduction of a legislative requirement for all referable dams in Queensland to have Emergency Action Plans (EAPs) formally approved by the Dam Safety Regulator. Prior to this EAPs were required under the dam safety conditions applied to each referable dam and they were not formally approved. This recommendation has now been implemented as a requirement of the Water Supply (Safety and Reliability) Act 2008. This paper summarizes the emergency action planning system now applicable to Queensland’s referable dams and details the actions involved in implementing this system. It involves significant consultation between dam owners and local disaster managers and gives local disaster managers an opportunity to formally comment on EAPs prior to them being submitted for approval. Development of associated regulatory guidelines to cover all aspects of EAPs was done in order to make EAPs more consistent and more readily understood by users and other stakeholders in emergency situations. Once the guidelines had been developed, the Regulator undertook a state-wide series of seminars to raise the level of awareness of local disaster management groups and dam owners of the new requirements. The legislation also requires the publication of the approved EAPs on the department’s website to raise the public’s awareness of the risks involved and improve their responses in advance of emergency events. This represents a challenge from a public relations perspective because people will become more aware of the risks to which they are exposed. The paper summarises the Regulator’s experience in reviewing and considering the EAPs submitted for approval and it indicates some of the benefits and challenges of the ongoing program.