A C Mostert, D J Hagen, P C Blersch
The changes in flood operations since the 2006 flood, covering weather monitoring, hydrological flood station monitoring, and downstream monitoring, are discussed in detail in the paper.
Two techniques were used to calculate seismic hazard at a number of locations in southeast Australia. To simplify matters only Peak Ground Accelerations were compared.
The first technique used a seismological model of areal source zones that was based on the recorded seismicity as well as geological and tectonic inputs. Each zone was assigned a rate of earthquake activity that had been calculated from the recorded seismicity and a magnitude completeness function. Known geological faults that are also part of the model had to be excluded to allow a direct comparison with the second technique. A standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis then gave PGA values versus return periods. This is the approach that has been used for the current Australian earthquake loading code (AS1170.4).
The second technique used a simple historical approach whereby recorded earthquakes were combined with an attenuation function to directly give the estimated return periods. This approach takes no account of tectonics, geological terranes or faulting – it simply uses the known, recorded earthquake catalogue. This is the technique used in the original Australian earthquake loading code (AS 2121).
The same ground motion attenuation function was used in both techniques but for a direct comparison the aleatory variability was set to zero in the probabilistic case because the historical approach did not include this effect.
In the historical approach the variability in completeness of the recorded catalogue was not considered. It was simply assumed that all earthquakes producing accelerations greater than a given value would be recorded over the last 100 years.
The comparisons were made for minimum considered magnitudes of 4 and 5.
There was general agreement between the two approaches especially at shorter return periods (lower PGA amplitudes). At longer return periods (higher PGA amplitudes) where there were higher uncertainties, the results at some sites diverged.
This simple comparison of two approaches to the same problem of estimating earthquake hazard is shown to be of value in ensuring that the AUS5 model used by SRC is producing results that are consistent with the historically recorded data.
Gavan Hunter, David Jeffery and Chris Kelly
Laanecoorie Reservoir, located in central Victoria, passed 3 significant floods in late 2010 to early 2011; the last flood being the highest on record since 1909. Significant cracking and deformation of this 100 year old puddle core earthfill embankment occurred. A series of longitudinal cracks up to 25 mm in width opened up in the crest over a length of 70 m and crest settlements were up to 70 mm; very large for a dam of this age. A significant difference at Laanecoorie compared to other similar dams is that it experiences high tail water levels during major flooding.
Investigations into the embankment following the January 2011 flood encountered several defects
including a decomposed tree root hole (large void up to 90 mm) that almost fully penetrated the raised section of puddle core, permeable gravel layers within the puddle core and transverse cracks up to 2 mm wide. The encountered defects and performance of the embankment many years after construction highlighted the deterioration that can occur with aging of these older embankments and the issues associated with poor past practices in tree management adjacent to dam embankments.
Dam safety upgrade works were undertaken in 2013 to address the identified piping and stability risks.
The works included construction of a filter buttress, replacement of a length of the raised puddle core and construction of a buried gabion wall on the left abutment to provide protection against scour should the secondary spillway fail or overtop.
GMW implemented a series of actions during the flood events in accordance with the Dam Safety
Emergency Plan (DSEP) to address cracking and deformation. Once aware of the dam safety risks, interim actions were implemented including increased frequency of monitoring, together with set up and measurement of crack pins, and temporary survey markers on the embankment.
Dr Andy Hughes, Tom Wanner and Ben Jones
Hampstead Heath is one of London’s most popular open spaces, situated just 6 kilometres north of Trafalgar Square. ‘The Heath’ covers over 300 hectares and contains open countryside, an abundance of wildlife, sporting facilities and two chains of ornamental and fresh water swimming lakes, which date back to the 18th Century. The Heath is covered by its own Act of Parliament, of 1871, which protects its historic and environmental importance for the City of London.
In 2011 it was assessed that failure of one or more of the earthfill dams, that retain the ornamental and swimming lakes, could cause failure of downstream dams and subsequent release of floodwaters into the London Borough of Camden and the London Underground, with the potential for a high loss of life. As a result a study was carried out to better understand the scale of the works required to upgrade the dams to prevent their failure, and the associated environmental, social and political impacts.
This paper will present the ideas formulated to safely pass the design floods for ten dams within this sensitive environment, which include the installation of new spillways and/or the raising of dam crests, whilst taking in to account the site constraints and the age of the dams, some of which are up to 300 years old. The risk assessment carried out to quantify the overall risk of the dam failures will also be discussed including the breach inundation flood modelling of central London.
The paper will focus on the engineering and environmental constraints of the project in relation to the highly urbanised area, and the challenges faced when trying to accommodate the needs of many government and high profile stakeholder bodies, and pieces of legislation, in one of the most politically sensitive parts of the country
Phillip Jordan, Alan Seed, Rory Nathan, Peter Hill, Eva Kordomenidi, Clive Pierce, Michael Leonard
This paper discusses the stochastic framework that was used to generate the 5449 sets of inflow hydrographs, to develop and stress test a dam operations model. The stochastic simulations were driven by 600 different space-time patterns of rainfall generated using a stochastic space-time multiplicative cascade model. Eight significant storms were identified in the radar archive to identify parameter sets for the stochastic generation algorithm and 600 replicates of space-time rainfall were generated. The statistical properties of spatial patterns of 48-hour rainfall bursts on eight major subcatchments of the Brisbane River catchment from the 600 stochastic replicates were verified against the same statistics derived from 38 major flood causing rainfall events observed in the catchment. The hydrographs were generated using an URBS rainfall runoff routing model of the Brisbane River catchment, which was calibrated to 38 historical flood events (between 1955 and 2013) and tested on a further 10 historical flood events (between 1887 and 1947).
The stochastically simulated sets of inflow hydrographs were then used to assess the impact of variations in flood operation rules for Wivenhoe and Somerset dams. The stochastically generated events exhibit substantial variability in runoff hydrographs but with variability that is statistically consistent with observed events. The stochastically generated hydrographs provide a considerably more realistic basis for testing the outcomes for different flood operations strategies than the single design event approaches that have previously been adopted.
Behrooz Ghahreman Nejad
In recent years, dam designers have become increasingly interested in application of the geomembrane sealing systems (GSS) in design of tailings storage facilities around the world. The main reasons for this have been the deformation characteristics, environmental aspects (ie seepage minimisation), speed of construction and constructability of geomembrane liners in most climatic conditions. This paper reports the design and application of two types of geomembrane sealing system in Angas Zinc (AZ) and Sarcheshmeh Copper (SC) tailings dams. The former is a 25m high zoned earthfill embankment with an HDPE liner system, located in an environmentally sensitive site in South Australia. The latter is a 94m high zoned rockfill embankment with a PVC liner system, located in a region of high seismicity in central Iran.
The designs of the AZ and SC geomembrane sealing systems including geomembrane liner, drainage layer, anchoring, leak detection system and drains, and instrumentations are discussed in detail. The performance of the liner systems during operation is also presented.