Anurag Srivastava, David S. Bowles and Sanjay S. Chauhan
Based on a generalized event tree algorithm, a deterministic model (DAMRAE) was developed for the US Army Corps of Engineers to support the dam safety risk assessment. With an objective to incorporate the uncertainty analysis functionality for the event tree based risk models, we extend the DAMRAE framework to develop a generic uncertainty analysis tool (DAMRAE-U) for dam safety risk assessment. DAMRAE-U provides a convenient way to efficiently characterize, propagate, and display the outcomes of uncertainty analysis. DAMRAE-U is structured to analyze knowledge uncertainty for the event tree variables and natural variability associated with flood and earthquake loadings. It also provides for separating the effects of uncertainty in the existing condition of the dam system on which the event tree model is dependent. In this paper, we present the details of the developed computational framework. Also, an example risk model to illustrate the inputs and outputs of the framework and the implementation of tolerable risk evaluation incorporating uncertainty in risk estimates is included.
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Iain Lonie, Malcolm Barker and Colin Thompson
Consideration of flood mitigation benefits, water supply, irrigation and recreational usage played an instrumental role in developing the proposed upgrade for Maroon Dam to meet dam safety and flood capacity requirements. Maroon Dam is a 47.4 m high zoned earthfill dam completed in 1974. The dam is a multi-purpose reservoir which is now owned and operated by Seqwater and plays an important role in the local community. Key drivers for the proposed upgrade design included embankment stability, foundation concerns, piping, spillway capacity and erosion of the embankment toe.
Six options were reduced to three through a high level screening exercise. A more detailed assessment of the remaining options was undertaken using a Multi Criteria Analysis and a detailed risk assessment. Consideration of the competing uses of the reservoir was critical in the development and assessment of the preferred option. This paper will present the details of the analytical methods used as input for the Multi Criteria Analysis and the detailed risk assessment for the final proposed design option that will meet the requirements of dam safety and flood capacity without impacting on water supply, irrigation and recreational usage.
Simon Lang, David Stephens, Peter Hill, Mark Arnold and Tommie Conway
Considerable thought has been given in recent years to managing the risks associated with floods during the construction of new dams and dam upgrades. Both ANCOLD and the NSW DSC provide some limited advice on how this risk should be managed, with many dam owners aiming for societal risk during construction to be no higher than pre-construction. One approach to do this is to draw down the reservoir such that sufficient airspace is created to reduce the probability of overtopping the construction works to be equal to that of overtopping the dam crest pre-construction. However, this frequently leads to very large releases of valuable water resource being required. This approach also fails to consider that the conditional probabilities of failure may be quite different during construction than during normal operation. A risk-based approach was applied for the recent upgrade of Tarago Reservoir. Existing event trees from a failure modes analysis were adjusted to reflect the construction conditions. In some cases, the event probabilities increased (for example as a result of excavation of the dam embankment), however some also decreased (for example as a result of more rapid means of detecting and intervening in breach formation during construction). The conditional probabilities of failure during construction were then used to estimate the overall seasonal probability of failure, and it was found that a limited draw down of the reservoir would be sufficient to ensure that risks were no higher during construction than pre-construction. To reinforce this, the cost-to-save-a-statistical life was estimated for further drawdown of the reservoir and used to demonstrate that the risks were as low as reasonably practicable.
Jamie Campbell, Gregg Barker, Paul Southcott and Michael Wallis
The assessment of consequences of dambreak is used as input to the design parameters of dams, dam safety requirements and dam risk assessments. For many low consequence category dams, the consequences of failure can be dominated by itinerants, in particular vehicles on roads within the dambreak inundation area. Estimating the population at risk (PAR) and potential loss of life (PLL) rigorously is mathematically complex, requires significant user judgment and can be very sensitive to input assumptions. This paper presents a simple, practical tool that has been developed to assist engineers and analysts in assessing the PLL of itinerant road users within a dambreak inundation zone. The tool allows for a logical and defensible analysis based on an event tree approach and provides guidance on appropriate factors to be used in calculating the overall fatality rate of people exposed to the dambreak hazard. This paper details the tool and how to apply it to typical dambreak problems, providing the reader with the information required to estimate the consequences on itinerant road users; the paper also details how the concepts discussed can be applied to other itinerants.
Jeong Yeul, Lim
For various historical reasons and some technical reasons, the safety of dams has been evaluated using an engineering standards-based approach, which was developed over many years. It was used initially for the design of new dams, but increasingly has been applied over the past few decades to assess the safety of existing dams. Some countries have carried out risk assessments of existing dams that included both the structural and hydraulic safety of the dam and social risk. These methods developed by other countries could be adapted to assist in decision-making for dam safety management. Unfortunately, methods for risk assessment of dams were not established in Korea. This study outlines a beginning risk analysis for structural safety management. The first stage consisted of research on the present domestic dam safety guidelines and reviewing operations for management systems of dam safety abroad. Also, dam risk analysis requires reliable data on dam failure, past construction history and management records of existing dams. A suitable risk analysis method of dams for structural safety management in Korea is use of event tree, fault tree and conditioning indexes methods. A pilot risk assessment was carried out for two dams. The dam risk assessment process was thus established, and we learned the importance of risk assessment. The future includes additional research and risk analysis to develop the system.
Kinchant Dam is a zoned earth and rockfill embankment situated on the north branch of Sandy Creek, approximately 30 km southwest of Mackay in central Queensland. Kinchant Dam was constructed in stages. The ‘Initial Development Stage’ which consisted of an embankment length of approximately 3.3 km and full supply level (FSL) of EL 49.21 m AHD was completed in 1977. Further development completed in 1986 (Stage I) increased the FSL to EL 57.21 m AHD with an embankment length of 5.5 km and a maximum embankment height of 22.3 m. The dam has a storage capacity of 62,800 Ml and a 60 m wide emergency spillway with a fixed crest level of EL 58.21 m AHD, one metre higher than the FSL.
A series of investigations have been carried out since its construction as a consequence of both regulatory safety reviews and observed excessive pore pressures within the foundation that have led to wet patches developing at the toe of the dam. In one area at the toe, pore pressures were such that artesian conditions developed. This paper outlines the history of various stages of construction of the dam, the foundation investigations since construction and the safety review and comprehensive risk assessment process that lead to the upgrade design and construction of remedial works. The remedial works include the extension of the downstream filter material adjacent to the clay core and the provision of additional pressure relief wells at the downstream toe of the dam.