Nanda Nandakumar, Janice Green, Rory Nathan, Kristen Sih& Robert Wilson
A detailed assessment of hydrologic risk was undertaken for Hume Dam. Data available and relevant to the hydrologic risk assessment were collated and assessed. The catchment was divided into 35 different sub-catchments, each with its own set of parameters that characterised the local hydrologic response. Recorded streamflow was used to calibrate the flood response of selected gauged sub-catchments, and a combination of historic and synthetically-derived data was used to validate the model and loss parameters. The 35 models were combined into a single catchment-wide model. A Monte Carlo approach was adopted for the validation of the models and the derivation of Hume Dam inflow and outflow frequency curves. A range of PMFs which satisfy ANCOLD’s definition of the PMF were also estimated. The PMPDF outflow was estimated to be 7,600 m3/s which can be passed by the dam. Depending upon the assumptions made, the peak PMF outflow was estimated to be in the range from 10,300 m3/s to 14,900 m3/s
2011 – Assessment of Hydrologic Risk for Hume Dam
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The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake of magnitude 9.0 shook the east Japan and caused enormous damage. As of September 22, The Japanese National Police Agency has confirmed 15,805 deaths, and 4,040 people missing, as well as over 295,047 buildings completely or partially destroyed. About 8,700,000 homes lost power, and about 2,290,000 homes were shut down from water supply. The transportation lifelines such as highways and railways including Shinkansen (high speed train) were disrupted. The earthquake triggered extremely destructive tsunami waves of the height of 15 metres, in the east coast of the Pacific Ocean. Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant had accidents.
2011 – Perspectives of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami
Paul Somerville, Hong Kie Thio
There is a large degree of uncertainty as to the true state of nature (i.e. epistemic uncertainty) regarding many aspects of seismic hazard analysis. Such differences are often highlighted by differences between alternative models put forth by different model proponents. This epistemic uncertainty is treated by giving weight to all viable alternative models through the use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, rather than just using a preferred model. This paper reviews epistemic uncertainties that arise from alternative distributed earthquake source models; alternative models for the recurrence of earthquakes on those sources; alternative approaches to including active faults; alternative models for the recurrence of earthquakes on active faults; alternative ground motion prediction models for Australia; and alternative methods for incorporating site response. It also reviews alternative representations of the design response spectrum for the development of ground motion time histories.
2011 – Recent Developments in Seismic Hazard Analysis
T. Mortimer, J. McNicol, P. Keefer, W. Ludlow
CS Energy’s Kogan Creek Coal Mine located in the Surat Basin in Queensland, services the 750MW coal fired, Kogan Creek Power Station. Strip mining generates large volumes of mine waste which is typically used to construct waste dumps. Recent work at the mine has focused on using mine waste to construct an ash storage facility to store ash that is piped over 5 km from the power station as a dense phase slurry. The use of mine waste to construct the ash storage facility provides significant cost and time savings, however a range of design, construction and operation issues needed to be addressed to operate a facility of this type.
This paper describes some of the key design, construction and operation considerations for the ash storage facility. Design considerations include pipeline transport through environmentally sensitive areas, addressing the stability of the embankment and the use of a partial LLDPE geomembrane lining system to reduce the risk of seepage from the storage. Construction considerations include post construction (pre ash deposition) floor treatment to reduce potential settlement. Operational considerations include ash slurry deposition, water management of the decant pond and progressive rehabilitation of the final landform.
2011 – Design, Construction and Operation of a Partially Lined, Ash Storage Facility Constructed from Mine Waste
Robert Keogh RPEQ, CE Civil (Hon), Mal Halwala, Peter Boettcher, Renee Butterfield
SunWater is a Government Owned Corporation (GOC), operating in a competitive market on an equal commercial footing with the private sector. SunWater owns 23 referable dams. Over the last fifty years there has been significant development of the methodologies used to estimate extreme rainfall events. These have resulted in substantial increases in probable maximum flood (PMF) estimates for most of SunWater’s dams.
SunWater has undertaken a Comprehensive Risk Assessment program across its portfolio. SunWater now has a good understanding of the deficiencies and available risk reduction options for each dam under all load conditions. The total cost to rectify all deficiencies is several hundred million dollars and well beyond the financial capacity of the organisation in the short term.
ANCOLD and Regulators have different published opinions on decision making criteria for dam safety upgrades. Once the conditions for the tolerability of Societal and Individual Risk are satisfied the onus remains with the dam owner to meet the ALARP principle. The decision making process is complicated by uncertainties in inputs to risk assessments. The authors have considered these uncertainties as well as the legal implications, differing ANCOLD and Regulator requirements, and business and economic loss, in formulating the decision making process. The methodology is simplified but effective. If the process is followed the dam owner’s investments will meet ANCOLD, Regulatory, legal and business requirements.
This Paper details a logical decision making process designed to allow a non technical Board to balance social, legal and financial objectives. The process considers overall risk, tolerability, the ALARP principle, and project prioritisation. The process is being used by SunWater to determine the Acceptable Flood Capacity of each dam, which dams will be upgraded, priorities and scheduling of each upgrade.
How SunWater, as a commercial dam owner makes investment decisions for dam safety upgrades
Malcolm Barker, Toby Loxton
The Gladstone Area Water Board (GAWB) owns and operates Awoonga Dam, which is a concrete-faced rock fill embankment with a fixed crest concrete spillway on the left bank impounding a storage volume of 770,000 ML.
The current arrangement can accommodate the Probable Maximum Flood, allowing for flow over Saddles 3, 4 and 6 on the left abutment. A comprehensive study was carried out to evaluate the erosion potential downstream from Saddles 3 and 6 as well as other spillway options adjacent to the existing dam. One option was a radical approach including the removal of the Saddle Dam 3 and provision of downstream erosion protection works. This reduced the PAR and improved the overall dam flood capacity; however concerns were expressed about the environmental impact of possible erosion downstream from Saddle 3 for relatively frequent events.
A risk assessment showed that the erosion protection works downstream from the Saddle 3 or 6 were not cost effective and the preferred option for the upgrade was the closure of the Saddle Dam 3 with an auxiliary spillway created in Saddle 6,
This paper summarises the methods used and the outcomes from this study.
2011 – Awoonga Dam Acceptable Flood Capacity design – the anguish of erosion risk and implications for design