The role of judgement in risk assessments as applied in dam safety management has been the source of considerable debate in recent years. With regard to risk analysis of dams, and while there is general agreement that judgement is an essential element of the process, essentially two schools of thought have emerged. One view holds that, in the assignment of probabilities, reliance can be based on collective engineering judgement that is anchored to a knowledge base. The second view holds that judgement should be based on the knowledge that is revealed by an appropriate amount of analysis. The paper, written from the perspective of the latter view, explores some of the underlying issues in this debate.
The role of judgement in risk evaluation, the process of judging the significance of risk, is considered to be equally important. However, the process of making value judgements and statements of principles is complex and often beyond the sphere of engineering. The third issue addressed in the paper concerns the search for answers to the question, “How good is the assessment?”
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Now showing 1-12 of 33 2963:
David S. Bowles, Loren R. Anderson, Joseph B. Evelyn, Terry F. Glover and David M. Van Dorpe
A demonstration risk assessment was conducted on the 283-foot high rolled-earthfill Alamo Dam as part of a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Research and Development program. The existing dam and 19 structural risk reduction alternatives were evaluated for flood, earthquake and normal operating conditions. The paper summarizes the risk assessment process, results, findings and recommendations. It also provides an evaluation of the risk assessment process and recommendations for better positioning the USACE to use risk assessment for dam safety evaluation and decision support.
Canning Dam is a mass concrete curved gravity structure 466m long and 70m high and is a primary peaking source for the Perth Metropolitan water supply system.
A safety review of Canning Dam concluded that the existing structure does not possess adequate margins of safety under static and dynamic loadings using contemporary dam engineering practices. Given the location and strategic importance of the Canning source, it is imperative that the dam be upgraded to comply with moder standards.
After investigation of alternative remedial measures to strengthen the dam, a permanent post- tensioned anchoring system was chosen.
Of the total of 165 permanent, monitorable and restressable ground anchors to be installed, 70 will consist of 91 x 15.2 mm strands. These are the highest capacity anchors to be installed anywhere in the world. A proving test for this size of anchor was carried out by VSL in September 1998. The results of the test confirmed that the use of 91 x 15.2 mm strand permanent anchors is feasible and that the corrosion protection is assured.
Garry Meinck, Chris Elliott and Tony Moulds
This paper describes the experiences of a former state statutory authority in the almost four years since it became corporatised to form a water utility with a fully commercial orientation and with a new board of management with a clear awareness of the responsibilities of corporate governance.
The need to commit to major remedial work at one of the principal dams focussed the Board’s attention on the safety status of all of the Corporation’s 56 referable dams.
In the absence of external dam safety regulation the Corporation has moved to satisfy its corporate governance responsibilities by adopting current best practice in dam safety. Key elements in this process were:
Jim Walker, Murray Gillon and John Grimston
Karapiro Dam is at the end of a cascade of hydropower dams on the Waikato River in New Zealand’s North Island. The 52m high, high hazard, arch dam retains the lake for a 96MW power station at its downstream toe. Safety reviews recommended a re-evaluation of the dam stability under seismic loading.
Dam owner, Electricity Corporation of New Zealand (ECNZ), commissioned consultants Tonkin & Taylor Ltd to carry out a series of studies and investigations which provided better understanding of the dam’s safety status. Investigations located a previously unrecorded continuous low strength thrust fault underlying the left abutment. This provided the potential for movement of the left abutment gravity blocks under earthquake loading, with adverse effects on arch dam and reservoir safety. Investigations showed the abutment cut off walls to be lower than the PMF lake level. High groundwater levels and erodible pumiceous soils were found at the left abutment. These findings prompted ECNZ to implement stability enhancement works.
This paper describes the studies and investigations, peer review process, and design and construction of enhancement works.
Dr. Azam Khan and Dr. Anil Patnaik
Concrete dams are thinner than embankment dams and impose more concentrated loads on the foundation and abutments. A narrow valley with sufficient rock foundation is a typical site for concrete dam, which require a solid foundation that is relatively free of faults, shears, and major changes in foundation strength. Such discontinuities can overstress the concrete by causing some areas of dams to carry more loads than other areas. The measurement of deflections and use of finite element technique can predict the stresses in the concrete dams. A computer model is underdeveloped for prediction of deflections and stresses in Concrete Dam by using finite element. At the first stage of this study, measured deflections from Burrinjuck Dam are compared with the predicted deflections by using finite element. This paper outlines the deflections measured in the dam due to temperature variations and comparison of the measured thermal deflections with those predicted from a finite element analysis.