Leonard A McDonald and Chi Fai Wan
A risk assessment has been undertaken as part of a comprehensive review of the safety of Hume Dam. Use of risk assessment techniques, to assist in evaluating the safety of existing dams, is a relatively recent trend. Hume Dam was a particularly challenging subject for the application of risk assessment techniques at their present stage of development. The challenge lay in the number and diversity of dam elements to be analysed, in the number and complexity of the potential failure modes and in the fact that there were significant safety issues under normal operating conditions.
This paper outlines some of the key lessons learned from that phase of the risk assessment that was concerned with estimating the chance of dam failure. Some of the issues discussed have not previously been addressed in the literature and some demonstrate a clear need for improved analysis procedures.
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D.N.D. Hartford and R.A. Stewart
It seems perfectly logical, obviously desirable and apparently sensible to prioritise dam safety reviews, deficiency investigations and capitalised remediation projects in terms of risk. However, our experience in attempting to apply the various deterministic and risk- based approaches in prioritising dam safety activities has revealed that, while it may appear to be quite logical and desirable to prioritise in terms of risk, it is rather less feasible than it appears.
This paper explores why different prioritisation processes can lead to different priority rankings across the same portfolio of dams. B.C. Hydro’s Preliminary Risk Exposure Profile process, which utilises the best and most robust attributes of risk analysis process at the preliminary level but avoids the pitfalls associated with estimating risks which will often have little or even no basis is presented. The paper explains how this process provides a “fail-safe” backup which will identify non-conservative and erroneous facility risk estimates; thereby allowing for correction in a timely fashion. The paper also raises some awkward philosophical issues which the profession will have to address in order to permit confident dam safety decision-making on the basis of risk analyses. Not the least of these is the following issue – “If preliminary estimates of risk are reasonably good, then there should be little need for more detailed risk analysis for confident and defensible decisions concerning making or not making dam safety improvements”.
Gary Gibson, Wayne Peck, Ian Landon-Jones and Kumara Arachchi
One of the first seismograph networks designed specifically to record local earthquakes was installed about Sydney in 1958. This network was converted to telemetry in 1983. In 1992, Sydney Water Corporation upgraded the network, integrating the functions of earthquake location and magnitude, measurement of the response of structures to earthquake motion, and provision of information for emergency response. The response function has been developed over the past six years, and is now an “Earthquake Preparation, Alarm and Response” system that provides customised information very soon after any significant event.
Alkali-aggregate reaction (AAR) is a potentially deleterious process in concrete containing reactive aggregates, and can lead to varying degrees of cracking in structures, and differential movement and misalignment of concrete elements and mechanical installations. The rehabilitation of affected structures would require information on the extent of current damage and possibility of on-going damage that could be caused by AAR.
Information on the characterisation of concrete components of an AAR-affected dam and estimation of their future potential for further expansion and cracking are provided and repair options discussed in this paper.
Steven Rosin and Chen Han Shan
Tailings dam rehabilitation is a major challenge for the mining industry in China requiring a multi-disciplinary approach. A team of Chinese and Australian professionals have recently completed a 4-year project to develop guidelines for rehabilitation procedures for tailings dams in China.
This paper focuses on the geotechnical stability issues that were required to be addressed as part of dam rehabilitation assessment. It also discusses Chinese practices in tailings dam design and operation considered for the assessment. Three case studies are presented from sites in various parts of China.
P.I. HILL, R.J. NATHAN, P.E. WEINMANN, J.H. GREEN
The assessment of flood risk is important to the safe design, maintenance and operation of dams. Traditionally, a standards-based approach has been adopted, in which the adequacy of a spillway was assessed by its ability to pass the whole, or a specified fraction, of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). More recently, however, the ANCOLD Position Paper on Guidelines for Selection of Acceptable Flood Capacity for Dams has moved towards a risk-based approach, in which attention is focused on establishing the exceedance probability of the maximum flood that can be safely passed by the spillway.
The move to a risk-based approach has led to an increasing focus on the derivation of floods with very low probabilities of exceedance. The chapter in Australian Rainfall and Runoff that gives guidance on the estimation of extreme floods has recently been revised and issued as Book VI. The new guidelines reflect the move from a standards, to a risk based approach and also include recent developments in extreme flood estimation. These recent developments result in an improved estimate of floods in the large to extreme range and hence a more reliable estimate of hydrologic risk.
This paper illustrates the impacts of the new flood guidelines by summarising the results for 7 dams in Southeastern Australia. For the examples presented in this paper the impact of the new guidelines is to reduce the estimated hydrologic risk. The new guidelines have an important effect on the estimation of hydrologic risk and therefore the assessment and management of dams in Australia.