1998 – Estimating the Probability of Failure of Concrete and Masonry Gravity Dams

Kurt Douglas, Matt Spannagle and Robin Fell

This paper describes a method for estimating the probability of failure of concrete and masonry gravity dams through the dam or the foundation. The method is based on the research and analysis of historic failures and accidents performed at The University of New South Wales over the last two years. The method accounts for dam type; age; foundation; height/width ratio; dam performance observations; and monitoring and surveillance.

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